Report: 400,000 Ukrainians expected to leave in 2024 due to destroyed infrastructure
Ukraine braces for increased emigration as Russian attacks devastate energy infrastructure. A report published by the Ukrainian central bank on Thursday predicts that 400,000 Ukrainians will leave the country this year, with another 300,000 potentially following next year. This trend is expected to worsen due to the near-total destruction of Ukraine's energy system, which is causing prolonged power outages and increasing risks for the heating season, the central bank explained.
Moscow has significantly targeted Ukraine's power grid this year. Russian attacks on the energy sector have damaged or destroyed numerous Ukrainian power plants, leading to widespread power outages and raising concerns about the upcoming winter. Additionally, the central bank reports that power outages are negatively impacting the economy due to decreasing demand for labor and increasing emigration.
While Ukrainian authorities announced in late July that the country's energy supply situation was improving thanks to repairs, the lack of air defense means the Russian army can still launch renewed attacks on the facilities at any time.
UN estimates suggest that by 2024, at least 6.7 million Ukrainians will be living abroad. The exact number of people remaining in Ukraine is a contentious issue among experts, as the last and only census in the country was conducted in 2001, when the population was 48 million.
Experts estimate that Ukraine's population was between 28 and 34 million last year, compared to an estimated 41 million before the Russian invasion. These estimates are due to the country's longstanding struggles with low birth rates and high mortality rates, as well as the loss of significant territories due to Russian annexation and occupation since 2014.
Due to the prolonged power outages and increasing risks for the heating season, many Ukrainians might find it challenging to foreseeable live comfortably in the country. Consequently, the forecasted emigration numbers could surpass the initial predictions, leading to a significant displacement of people in the near future.
