- Pre-election ruling: Excitement over published document
Before the announcement of the ruling on the electoral reform of the traffic light coalition, a document has been circulating which could be the text of the decision of the Federal Constitutional Court. The document was temporarily available on the website of the highest German court and several media outlets reported on it. A spokesman for the Federal Constitutional Court declined to comment on the representation that it was the ruling in a late Monday evening request and referred to today's ruling, which is scheduled for 10:00 AM.
If the document is authentic and actually contains the ruling, the Federal Constitutional Court deems parts of the electoral reform unconstitutional. This concerns the abolition of the so-called basic mandate clause in the new electoral law - according to which parties also entered the Bundestag in the strength of their second vote results if they were below the five percent hurdle, but won at least three direct mandates. The Left benefited from this in the 2021 election.
The new regulation introduced by the coalition of SPD, FDP and Greens has been in force since June 2023 and is scheduled to be applied for the first time in the upcoming federal election in 2024. The reform aims to significantly reduce the size of the Bundestag - by more than 100 to a maximum of 630 parliamentarians.
To achieve this, the reform no longer provides for any overhang and equalization mandates - which is also assessed as constitutional in the known document. Overhang mandates arose in the past when a party won more direct mandates via first votes than it was entitled to seats via second votes. These mandates were then retained by the party, with other parties receiving equalization mandates in return.
In particular, the CSU and the Left have a lot at stake with the planned abolition of the basic mandate clause. In the 2021 election, the CSU received 5.2 percent of the second votes nationwide. If it were to slip below the five percent mark in the next election, it would be excluded from the Bundestag under the traffic light electoral law - even if it were to win the vast majority of constituencies in Bavaria directly again.
If the document is confirmed to be the ruling from the Federal Constitutional Court, then 'The Constitution (Law)' deems parts of the electoral reform unconstitutional, specifically the abolition of the basic mandate clause. This could potentially impact parties like the CSU, as they may no longer be entitled to seats below the five percent threshold if they win a majority of direct mandates in their constituency.
