Icy nights, snow, black ice - how long will it stay cold?

Winter has Germany firmly in its grip. It continues with sub-zero temperatures, rain, snow and frost. While the coldest weather is in the south, a wave of milder air is heading east. There, the fine weather high "Dunja" is causing the next slippery spell on the roads and paths.

On Sunday night, we experienced the coldest night of the season so far. Minus 19.8 degrees on the Zugspitze and minus 18.1 degrees in Meßstetten at an altitude of 900 meters (Swabian Alb). And so it was also colder in Meßstetten than on the iciest night of the winter of 2022/2023, when temperatures there fell to minus 17.9 degrees on December 17, 2022.

Incidentally, the cold spot last night was Doline Degerfeld. It was even minus 24.5 degrees there. However, this is not an inhabited region, but an airfield for small aircraft.

In terms of temperature, it will be similar at the beginning of the new week. However, the cold spots are probably not to be found on the Alb, but rather in the hollows of the Erzgebirge, Bavarian Forest and in the Alpine valleys.

At the same time, our fine weather high "Dunja" is moving eastwards, clearing the way for low "Sani", which in turn will open up the next slippery spell on the roads and paths. This also brings with it a surge of milder air. This will then bring a thaw to the lower areas in the west and southwest, while the colder air in the north-eastern half of the country will hold out for the time being.

It is questionable whether this will last. Some of the weather computers rate the early winter in the north-east as very tough. By the end of the week at the latest, however, most forecasts are also predicting a thaw in the north-east. And as is so often the case, the wild rush of milder and wetter air will be accompanied by freezing rain or black ice as well as slippery snow. A sometimes explosive mix that develops as follows:

Monday night: Arctic cold and slippery snow

It will remain clear in the south and east before fog spreads in places. In the west and northwest, however, it will be cloudier and snowfall will be on the way at times between the Eifel and East Frisia. Although there won't be huge amounts, it could still be slippery, which is of course partly due to the temperatures. Here, the lows will be between 0 and minus 6, elsewhere between minus 7 and minus 15, in hollows in the Erzgebirge and Bavarian Forest as well as in the Alpine valleys locally up to minus 20 degrees.

Monday: Watch out - black ice in the mix

In the morning, there will still be some snow on the North Sea. In most of the rest of the country, however, it will be friendly and sunny at times, except in areas of fog or high fog. In the afternoon, snowfall will follow in the west, changing to rain at lower altitudes and later in the mountains. There is an acute risk of black ice! Meanwhile, it will remain dry for a long time from the Baltic Sea to Saxony and the Alps. Highs in the eastern half at minus 5 to 0 degrees, in the west with freshening winds 1 to 5 degrees.

Tuesday: Borderline weather with icy conditions in places

North-east of the Elbe it will remain cold and wintry with intermittent snowfall at minus 2 to plus 2 degrees. Otherwise it will be milder at 3 to 7 degrees with rain or sleet showers, with an increased risk of black ice, especially in the mountains and in Bavaria.

Wednesday: Winter tries to hold its own

It will continue to be changeable, with colder air likely to mix in again in the west. As a result, the snow line will once again drop to lower altitudes with highs of minus 1 to 3 degrees. Only along the Rhine will it be milder at 5 or 6 degrees.

Thursday: More often dry and partly sunny

In addition to a few patches of cloud, the sun will finally want to play along again. It will be most successful in the south and southwest. But showers will also be the exception in the rest of the country. All this with little change in temperatures between minus 1 and 6 degrees.

Tension rises towards the weekend

From Friday onwards, it will be exciting to see whether and how quickly the moderation spreads from the west to the east. Initially there could be snow, then rain with black ice, followed by a thaw. The American weather model is currently presenting us with a different version, in which the moderation - with similar effects - will only make it to the west and the center of the country with difficulty. In any case, as things stand at present, winter is likely to take a break across Germany from Sunday, or at the latest at the beginning of the week after next.