Following a bumpy beginning to the calendar year, the summer movie season is trying to make up ground.
In summer 2022, blockbusters like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" contributed close to a billion dollars to the domestic box office as per Comscore's data. This year, studios hedge their bets on mid-range sequels and prequels along with family-friendly animated movies to compensate for the void left by "Barbenheimer." These include "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Bad Boys: Ride or Die," and "Inside Out 2."
Compounding the situation are production delays that persist following the multi-month-long Writers Guild and SAG-AFTRA strikes, which studios are still feeling the reverberations from. This has negatively impacted the summer season, which ordinarily attracts the largest movie theater audiences and contributes up to 40% of the entire domestic annual revenue.
Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore's senior media analyst, told CNN that since the summer season sets the pace for the year, it seems unlikely to generate 20% to 25% more box office grosses between May and August compared to the earlier year.
Summer box office usually brings around $4 billion in domestic revenue (according to Comscore data). In 2023, the season's revenue soared 19.2% from the previous year, hitting $4.09 billion.
Warner Bros. distributed "Barbie," which contributed to this success and is a subsidiary of CNN's parent company, Warner Bros. Discovery.
A $100-million opening weekend is typically achieved only by intellectual-property blockbusters and highly anticipated family films like the Star Wars series or superhero movies, and animated hits like "The Incredibles 2" or "Finding Dory." As of now, none have managed to surpass this mark.
“Given the lack of a Marvel movie to provide a $100-million-plus opening weekend, this summer will have to pick up speed in June and July,” Dergarabedian added, observing it's off to a slow start.
Disney releases that could tip the scale for summer box office
Disney's releases could potentially determine the fate of the summer box office. Two potential revenue-generators are Disney's Pixar's "Inside Out 2" and Marvel's "Deadpool & Wolverine," according to analysts.
Box Office Theory's founder Shawn Robbins believes "Inside Out 2," produced by Disney, may be one of the major players in exceeding the $100-million mark. Ditto for the R-rated "Deadpool & Wolverine," based on character appearances from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Compared to Disney, “it’s hard to think of another year where a studio as big as this one sits out the entire first half of the year,” observes Daniel Loria, Box Office Pro's editorial director.
Reportedly, this can be attributed to production delays and rescheduled dates arising from the Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA strikes, which severely affected the release calendar for major studios.
Though Disney has remained mum on the matter, Robbins expects "Inside Out 2" to open anywhere between $80 million and $100 million. On the other hand, he foresees "Deadpool & Wolverine," Marvel's only summer release, to reignite interest after "The Marvels" underperformed with a disappointing $47 million opening weekend in November 2022.
Loria also hints at "Deadpool & Wolverine" breaking the $200 million barrier on opening weekend, rivalling the opening of "Spiderman: No Way Home" in the post-pandemic era. But with two months to go, we’ll need to keep an eye out on pre-sale trends and awareness to ascertain its actual potential.
“'Despicable Me 4' and 'Inside Out 2' are expected to be major hits, and 'Deadpool & Wolverine' will most likely be the best film of the summer," states Dergarabedian.
The 2024 Box Office Struggles
Cinema professionals believe that the box office in 2024 has been underwhelming, but they retain optimism that the industry will recover by the end of the year and beyond.
"The decline in box office revenue is mostly because of significant gaps between popular releases in the first half of the year," argued Robbins. "This has been the case for a long time after the pandemic ended, resulting from numerous factors that are beyond the control of the theatrical exhibition. The industry was only given a meager window of time between COVID-related delays in production followed by writers' and actors' strikes."
Robbins further stated that there's a potential for high-performing films in the second half of the year to make up for this difference, such as "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" in September and "Transformers One" in October.
"People’s filmgoing habits have changed significantly since the pandemic, but the excitement for theatrical experiences remains consistent," observed Loria. "Data suggests that audiences are still capable of supporting the studio's blockbuster model, but determining which movies will turn into blockbusters is as challenging as ever before."
Box Office Pro anticipates that the total earnings for 2024 will amount to $8.2 billion, a 10% decrease compared to the $9 billion grossed in 2023. Comscore reported that domestic revenue in 2023 was the highest since the pandemic and yet still lagged behind pre-pandemic annual sales by approximately $2 billion.
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In this challenging summer movie season, studios are turning to mid-range sequels and family-friendly animated films to fill the gap left by blockbusters like "Barbernheimer." This business strategy includes releases such as "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga," "Bad Boys: Ride or Die," and "Inside Out 2."
Despite the challenges faced by the summer season, Disney's upcoming releases, particularly "Inside Out 2" and "Deadpool & Wolverine," are seen as potential revenue-generators that could significantly impact the summer box office.
Source: edition.cnn.com
