First it gets "unfortunately pretty nasty" - then an icy winter comeback?
It's getting slippery. Precipitation is moving across the country from west to east - and hitting frozen ground. It will be windy at the weekend, it will thaw and more rain will fall. This increases the risk of flooding, especially in the south. In the coming week, the Scandinavian ice winter will intensify again, as ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander knows.
ntv.de: What is the weather forecast for the second weekend of Advent?
Björn Alexander: A wild mixture. First there'll be acute icy conditions, then it'll be stormy and much milder with a thaw and risk of flooding. It won't be until the middle of next week that winter fans can have hope again.
Slippery conditions: What can we expect?
It will be freezing cold again during the night with lows between minus 1 and minus 12 degrees before the foothills of low pressure system "Udo" move in during the second half of the night. A sometimes explosive mixture, as snow and rain meet frosty ground. It will be coldest where the sky remains clear for longer. This is in the regions towards the Alps, the Bavarian Forest and the Ore Mountains.
How will the icy conditions continue during the day?
By Friday morning, the band of precipitation and icy conditions will reach roughly a line from Emsland-Hesse-Baden-Württemberg. Initially often with snow or freezing rain. As the day progresses, the precipitation will move eastwards, while the icy conditions will ease from the west with temperatures peaking at 8 degrees. Meanwhile, it may snow heavily at times, especially in the north. Both there and in the east and south-east, it will remain much colder with temperatures of no more than minus 2 degrees in places.
And at the weekend?
Unfortunately, it will be pretty nasty in some areas. The risk of icy conditions will decrease significantly - but this is due to the stormy and sometimes wet thaw. The weather winner on Saturday will be the east, where it will remain mostly dry, while the west will see more rain and brisk to stormy winds. In addition, 2 degrees in the eastern low mountain ranges and up to 10 degrees on the Rhine.
What are the forecasts for Sunday and Monday?
Sunday will be changeable with showers and milder temperatures of 4 to 12 degrees. On Monday it will be even milder again with up to 14 degrees. It will continue to be windy to stormy and very wet in places, especially in the south, which in combination with the massive thaw will again bring the risk of flooding to the fore.
What is the situation?
Due to the extremely wet previous autumn, which brought peaks of over 800 liters of rain per square meter in the south, the new water masses threaten a hydrological double blow: the water-laden soils have no capacity for buffering, so that all the water runs off above ground and at the same time meets the already elevated water levels. Much will depend on how much rain actually falls. At the moment, the water level forecasts for the Rhine, for example, assume a five-year flood. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty, which means that it could become much more intense.
Is there a chance of a winter comeback?
It will definitely be exciting again from the middle of next week. And this is partly due to the growing cold poles. On the one hand, the Scandinavian ice winter is intensifying again after a slight moderation. On the other hand, cold Arctic or Siberian air is also spreading further eastwards. At the same time, some weather computers are forecasting a renewed build-up of high pressure over northern Europe - with cold to icy consequences for us in the last third of the month.
What are the chances of a white Christmas in 2023 as a result?
The experimental long-term calculations clearly show cooling tendencies until the end of the month. The approach to a build-up of high pressure is also recognizable. A situation that is also repeatedly supported by classic forecast models. Accordingly, the race for snow for the festive season will be very exciting this year - and could be reminiscent of a proper weather thriller right up to the end. Particularly as the polar vortex is also repeatedly stumbling.
With what consequences for us?
If the polar vortex is stable, mild to cool and wet currents usually predominate in this country. If it is disturbed or even split, then the probability of sustained cold air intrusions into the lowlands increases dramatically. The processes that precede such a development are complex, but are often indicated - as is currently the case - by a predicted warming in the stratosphere.
What does this mean?
It means that the stratospheric polar vortex could soon experience a significant disturbance. This in turn could have consequences for our weather patterns. Even if the vortex further down remains stable for the time being. At least the cold pole is beginning to move, which in turn increases the options for another onset of winter in the last third of December.
Are there also foreseeable consequences for the further course of winter in January?
The processes surrounding a collapse or split of the polar vortex are of a longer-term nature and often only become apparent weeks later. In this respect, some sharp drops in the experimental long-term trends are still very plausible and we can also look forward to seeing how the course is set for the winter in January. The fact is that surprises of a wintry nature cannot be ruled out with this development.
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The upcoming week will see a return of extreme weather conditions in Scandinavia, as the Scandinavian ice winter intensifies again.
Given the current weather patterns, international climatologists are closely monitoring the potential impact of this extreme weather event on global temperature trends.
Source: www.ntv.de
