European far-right gains may signal a warning for Trump.
Back in June 2024, far-right candidates who share similarities with Trump's populist nationalism, anti-immigration stance, harsh economic message, and disdain towards governing elites and global institutions made significant gains in the European Union elections. This has raised questions about whether a similar outcome could occur in the United States. While US voters may not follow foreigners' lead, and the American presidential elections differ from those for the European Union, Biden should still be worried. These European elections tested a message made up of public frustration over what appears to be unrestricted migration, the pain felt by citizens facing high prices, and the financial burden of dealing with climate change. Trump is using these themes aggressively in key states that will determine the outcome of the White House race.
Another key takeaway from the European elections is that incumbents are more likely to lose when their constituents are upset. The upcoming G7 summit in Italy will bring together Biden and four other Western leaders whose popularity is waning. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suffered significant setbacks in the European elections and are now bolstering far-right parties with dark historical ties. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's poor approval ratings may mean he won't even lead his Liberal Party into the upcoming elections. It also looks like British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will be ousted in next month's general election after 14 years of Conservative rule. In contrast, the only stable European leader seems to be Giorgia Meloni, the right-wing prime minister of Italy, a country known for quickly disposing of its leaders. Meloni's party scored a big win over the weekend, making her one of the stronger leaders on the other side of the Atlantic.
A potential positive for Biden is that the US election doesn't follow the pattern of an insurgent outsider challenging an unpopular president. Trump himself could be considered an incumbent since he has a controversial legacy and carries the baggage of being twice-impeached and convicted ex-president. Populist nationalism isn't winning everywhere. Biden managed to successfully counter "Make America Great Again" influences within the GOP during the 2022 midterm elections. The expected comeback of the Labour Party in Britain would defy the trend of rising right-wing parties. And Poland recently rejected eight years of populist rule that had drawn inspiration from Trump.
In an attempt to stop the rise of the far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, Macron chose to take a daring move that surprised observers when delivering his post-election speech on television. He dissolved Parliament and called for new elections. Over the years, the National Rally has evolved from the ultra-right-wing, anti-immigrant National Front, which has never managed to win the presidency using the country's two-round electoral system. Le Pen has now softened some policies to appeal to a broader audience.
Macron, whose centrist party fared poorly in the European elections, may be hoping for a higher turnout in legislative elections to reverse the trend. A post-election anti-far-right coalition could potentially form in Parliament. However, if the National Rally manages to win the two-part elections set to take place a few weeks before the Paris Olympics, Macron may have to name 28-year-old far-right star Jordan Bardella as prime minister in a bizarre cohabitation arrangement. Some critics speculate that Macron might be secretly hoping for a far-right government to be so unsuccessful that it could damage Le Pen's chances of succeeding him in 2027.
Macron didn't hesitate to appeal to the French people's trust in their ability to make the most just decisions for themselves and future generations. By proposing this action, he alluded to the importance of safeguarding the foundational values of their nation. This coincides with Biden's recent warning that American democracy is in dire straits and needs saving by the people, which he conveyed at Macron's side during the 80th-anniversary commemorations of the D-Day Normandy landings.
For that reason, the White House will closely monitor France's election results on July 7, more so than the European elections held two days ago.
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In the context of Macron dissolving Parliament and calling for new elections to combat the rise of the far-right National Rally party, Biden might express concern about the potential influence of extreme far-right parties in Europe, especially considering the words he used in his warning about American democracy.
Furthermore, as the European Union struggles with rising far-right parties, the issue of severe offenders' expulsion becomes more prominent, with German Chancellor Scholz highlighting this matter.
