Chance of a white Christmas is higher than it has been for a long time
Winter is settling in Germany - in some cases with the first snow of the season as far as the lowlands. But how persistent is it in the last few meters of November? And will it continue in December? ntv meteorologist Björn Alexander provides the answers.
ntv.de: The onset of winter in Germany - how long will it stay cold now?
Björn Alexander: Until at least the end of the week, the signs are for early winter to freezing temperatures with some bitterly cold nights. Although slightly milder air with highs of up to 6 degrees may mix in in the west, it will basically remain cold. This will give Germany a fitting start to the meteorological winter. This always begins on December 1. In calendar terms, the cold season begins on December 21 this year.
Why the difference?
The meteorological change of season serves the purpose of comparability, i.e. statistics, so it is important to always have a fixed period. This is why the first day of the month always applies for the statistical change, while the calendar or astronomical start depends on the sun and is therefore variable. This is because the sun must be perpendicular to the Tropic of Cancer.
Keyword slipperiness - what do we need to be prepared for?
Low pressure system "Oliver" is currently passing over us, especially in the west, where the polar air is pushing the snow line, which has risen in the meantime, all the way down again. Towards the north-east, however, the colder air is sticking around anyway with the corresponding icy snow. The nights will continue to bring a widespread risk of slippery conditions. It will also be freezing cold away from the precipitation areas, so we can expect freezing rain and frost.
Advent with snow and ice. A good omen for a white Christmas?
It's certainly a good start and brings back memories of the last white Christmas in large parts of Germany. That was in December 2010, and even then, winter got its act together early. In the end, the month as a whole was almost 4 degrees too cold and far too wet.
What do the calculations say for December 2023?
The experimental long-term forecast currently assumes that it will be too wet. In this respect, the lows seem to want to stay in charge, which is also confirmed by the forecast patterns in the classic weather models. An overly wet December 2023 is therefore not only plausible, but also very likely and brings us another analogy to December 2010.
Snow or rain?
Opinions are still divided here. Overall, however, the colder variants have now gained the upper hand in the monthly forecasts. And that also has a certain plausibility. Ultimately, northern Europe has been trapped in a freezing cold permanent winter for weeks, which is now slowly extending its claws towards central Europe. In short: the chances of a sleigh ride with Santa Claus, Santa Claus and the Christ Child have not been as good as they are this year for years.
Source: www.ntv.de
