Are young people in Germany becoming increasingly violent?

Are young people in Germany becoming more and more violent?

The worst crimes in Wunstorf, Freudenberg and, most recently, Offenburg: headlines about riots involving young people or teenagers killing other children have been a recurring theme throughout the year. This has fueled fears that violent crime among young people is getting out of hand.

In fact, Germany started 2023 with a debate about youth violence. The year was barely a few hours old when the images of the New Year's Eve riots in Berlin and other major cities caused nationwide bewilderment. In the months that followed, the headlines about youth violence continued unabated. On the contrary - they were a recurring theme throughout the year:

14-year-old ties up classmate and kills him with a stone (Wunstorf, January 2023)
Two girls kill their friend Luise, who is the same age, "with numerous stab wounds" (Freudenberg, March 2023)
Eleven-year-old allegedly strangled ten-year-old girl in a children's home (Wunsiedel, April 2023)
Riots caused by young people at several outdoor swimming pools (July 2023)
14-year-old allegedly brutally abused and stabbed six-year-old Joel (Pragsdorf, September 2023)
14-year-old allegedly shot peer in school center (Lohr, September 2023)
15-year-old allegedly killed classmate with a shot to the head (Offenburg, November 2023)

It is particularly brutal cases like these that shape the public debate on youth violence. This is not just the case this year - cases of youth crime, for example in Salzgitter and Hanover, also caused a stir last year. Because when the youngest members of society commit the most serious crimes, they are remembered. Above all, however, each sensational act manifests the concern that something has gotten out of hand, that cases of youth violence are on the rise and that minors are becoming increasingly brutal. Mayors and ministers have long been alarmed, calling for tougher juvenile sentences and a lowering of the age of criminal responsibility.

Criminologists, on the other hand, are urging restraint: there can hardly be any talk of a more violent youth. Two positions that seem to be mutually exclusive. But where is the truth? Does Germany have a problem with increasing youth violence - or not?

BKA reports rise in youth violence

The answer is less clear-cut than the question suggests. After all, whether or not cases of youth violence are on the rise depends on which time period you look at and which data you use as a basis. The police crime statistics (PKS) are probably the most frequently cited. They are published every year by the Federal Criminal Police Office and provide information on the so-called bright field, i.e. violent crimes that come to the attention of the police through reports or arrests. According to these statistics, there is indeed a clear trend for the past year: compared to 2021, crimes involving violence among children and young people increased significantly in 2022. In cases of simple assault, the authorities registered 54% more suspected children (up to 14 years of age) and 36% more juvenile suspects (14 to 18 years of age).

So-called violent crime is considered separately from simple assault. This includes offenses such as robbery, rape, grievous and dangerous bodily harm, murder and manslaughter. Here, too, the police have recorded an increase: 42% more suspected children and 29% more suspected young people.

Now, the comparison with the coronavirus year 2021 may not be accurate due to lockdowns and homeschooling. However, a comparison with pre-corona data also shows an upward trend in youth violence, albeit to a lesser extent. An initial look at the figures from the criminal justice authorities therefore seems to confirm the impression of more violent youth.

Effects of the pandemic

There are various explanations for the rise in figures, says Thomas Bliesener in an interview with ntv.de. According to the Director of the Criminological Research Institute of Lower Saxony, it could be the effects of the pandemic. Two scenarios are therefore conceivable: Firstly, the lack of interaction during the lockdowns could have led to deficits in socialization. "Children and young people didn't have the opportunity to learn how to resolve conflicts for a while," says Bliesener. "This could have led to a deficit, the result of which we are now seeing in the PKS."

On the other hand, the rising numbers of youth violence in the bright field could be a kind of catch-up effect. "In all cultures studied, adolescence is the age at which boundaries are tested," explains the expert. As this was not possible during the coronavirus phase, the rebellion was postponed. As a result, there were simply more young people testing their limits in 2022. "In this case, the numbers should quickly settle back down to a lower level." This theory could also be supported by the fact that 2022 is the first increase in youth violence in the PKS for years.

Finally, there is a third explanation for the fact that the police registered significantly more suspected minors last year, says Bliesener. The fact that young people are better equipped could also have led to a greater willingness to report crimes. "After the pandemic, they suddenly had much more valuable items, such as tablets and laptops, in their backpacks. It's not unusual for these to be damaged during a fight or taken away during a robbery," explains the criminologist. "If these expensive devices are suddenly missing, this may well have increased the willingness of children or parents to report the crime."

Dark field studies paint a different picture

In this case, the rise in figures would not be due to minors committing more violent crimes than in previous years. Rather, the police would simply have learned of more crimes than before due to an increase in reports. In fact, the BKA itself points out in the PKS that a change in reporting behavior can change the data "without the extent of the actual crime having changed".

Dark-field studies therefore also play an important role in assessing whether violent crimes by children and young people are increasing. In contrast to bright-field data, they also provide information about crime that is not known to the police. This means that they are independent of a possible change in willingness to report crimes. Probably the best-known dark-field study in connection with youth violence is the Lower Saxony Survey conducted by the Criminological Institute of Lower Saxony. Since 2013, criminologists have been asking ninth-grade students about their experiences of violence every two years.

The results of this representative study paint a different picture to the police statistics. In the most recent report from 2019, 7.5% of respondents stated that they had experienced violence within a year. Two years earlier, the figure was 7.7%, 6.1% in 2015 and 7.9% in 2013. The report for the 2022 survey is currently being finalized. "But I can already reveal this much," says Bliesener. "We cannot report an increase in violent crimes committed by young people." According to the expert, the figures are similar to those of previous years.

Is the intensity of violence increasing?

The situation is similar with the accident insurance data. As all schools are members of the Federal Association of Accident Insurers, they have a good overview of so-called roughhousing accidents. All violence-related injuries to pupils, whether on school grounds or on the way to school, are recorded - regardless of whether the injured person reports their schoolmates to the police or not. In 2022, insurance companies recorded 53,725 "violence-related school accidents" nationwide. This actually shows a downward trend for youth violence, as the number was still 72,973 in 2019.

"Accident insurers in particular, who meticulously record all injuries - from bruises to broken bones - have been recording falling figures for years," summarizes Bliesener. "The theory that young people are becoming increasingly violent can therefore be clearly ruled out, at least for schools."

Now the sensational cases such as those from Freudenberg or Offenburg are certainly not schoolyard brawls, but the most serious crimes against life. This raises the question of whether the intensity of violent acts is increasing - in other words, whether there may be a trend towards more brutal escalations of violence among young people. According to Bliesener, however, there are no signs of this either. On the one hand, cases of simple bodily harm have also risen more sharply in the PKS than serious acts of violence. On the other hand, crimes against life among children and young people are "still very rare".

Level of violence has been falling for years

This is confirmed by a look at the absolute figures in the PKS. Last year, 206 young people and 19 children were linked to crimes against life such as murder or manslaughter. According to the Federal Statistical Office, there were around 14 million minors living in Germany in 2022. With such low case numbers, even small fluctuations can lead to large percentage changes in crime trends.

"Of course, you have to keep a close eye on the rise in the figures in the PKS," emphasizes Bliesener. However, one cannot draw the conclusion from this first increase in years that young people are becoming increasingly violent or even speak of a brutalization of young people. The increase in the figures in the PKS could just as well be a temporary event. We must now wait and see how things develop in the coming years. However, one thing is clear, the criminologist emphasizes: even with the increased figures, we are still a long way from previous values.

"We used to have completely different conditions. The level of youth violence was significantly higher in the 1990s and around the turn of the millennium." In fact, violent crime among children and young people has continued to fall with minor fluctuations since peaking in 2008. Compared to then, the authorities counted almost 40 percent fewer juvenile suspects last year - despite the increase. The figure for children was around six percent lower.

"In truth, shocking individual cases"

The main reason for this is good prevention work and a significantly lower acceptance of violence than in the past. Bliesener explains that personal experiences of violence are a factor in why children and young people become violent. "Violence against children used to be much more publicly accepted. We now have a very broad taboo on violence, for example through the ban on corporal punishment by teachers or parents." As a result, minors' own experiences of violence have greatly diminished. "This is the main reason why I don't expect the number of violent crimes among minors to return to previous levels," says Bliesener.

The statement that young people are becoming increasingly violent, which is often made with regard to past decades, is therefore not true. Schoolyard brawls, riots and isolated serious crimes committed by minors are anything but a new phenomenon. As far as juvenile crime is concerned, Bliesener sums up, "we live in much safer times today".

Now statistics are quickly forgotten and not half as haunting as the headlines of murdering teenagers. When minors beat other children to death or shoot them in the classroom, public interest is huge and the media coverage is ubiquitous. This also fuels the impression that the brutality of young people is on the rise. "In reality, however, these acts are shocking individual cases," Bliesener reminds us.