- Worry over a parliament without AfD: Thuringia holds new elections
In Thuringia, voters are selecting a fresh state parliament, deciding if for the first time in a German state, the AfD will be the dominant force. Recent surveys show the AfD, led by its extreme-right figurehead Björn Höcke, is leading but lacks coalition opportunities.
An unexpected shift of power might occur in the Erfurt state chancellery: Only an unheard-of alliance of CDU, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), and SPD could create a politically viable majority, as per polls.
Thuringia's societal division was clear just prior to the polls opening: In Erfurt, around 1,300 AfD supporters confronted roughly 3,000 counter-protesters opposing right-wing extremism and championing openness.
Newcomer may hold the kingmaker's role
Apart from the AfD, the newcomer, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), has the potential to be the Thuringia election's biggest surprise. Starting from zero, polls place the BSW in third place, and it's feasible that it could narrowly compete with the CDU for second place, despite a widening gap between the two parties in recent polls. With its popular candidate Katja Wolf, the BSW could function as the kingmaker or even aim for the Minister President role, a position sought by Thuringia's CDU leader Mario Voigt as well.
Poor prospects for Ramelow
After a decade of Red-Red-Green governance with Germany's initial and only Left Minister President Bodo Ramelow, the alliance struggles to achieve a potential majority in polls. The three partners have governed as a minority government for the past four and a half years, dealing with challenging compromises and tough negotiations. Despite his continued popularity in the state, Ramelow's Left party has seen a decline in the polls since the establishment of the BSW.
Future challenges ahead in Thuringia
Thuringia's political climate has been complicated and intricate for years. In 2020, the state ventured into a major government crisis when the FDP's Thomas Kemmerich was elected Minister President with AfD votes and resigned under public pressure three days later. Kemmerich is running again as the top candidate but may not secure a parliamentary seat. The Greens also fear not re-entering parliament. The SPD has been hovering near the 5 percent threshold in recent polls.
Potential gridlocks
In the bleakest scenario, either seven or just four parties might be represented in the future state parliament. Some politicians are worried that the AfD could more readily reach a so-called blocking minority if fewer parties enter the parliament. With a blocking minority, the AfD could obstruct key decisions and elections, potentially exerting influence over constitutional judges and preventing the state parliament from dissolving itself without AfD involvement.
Despite the absence of such gridlocks, the nation may encounter complex months ahead. Although Höcke has announced his intention to initiate coalition talks, the Thuringian AfD is firmly classified as right-wing extremist and under surveillance. In political Erfurt, concerns have been raised that the AfD could trigger a minister-presidential election early to disrupt or threaten potential coalition talks of other parties.
Additionally, it's indefinite how a potential alliance between Christians and Wagenknecht's party within the CDU will be perceived after the election. Wagenknecht's stance on US missiles in Germany and the war in Ukraine has raised eyebrows, even among SPD politicians. Wagenknecht, a native of Thuringia, has stated that she wants to be part of the negotiations.
The following newcomer, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), has the potential to surprise in the Thuringia election and could compete closely with the CDU for second place. The 'following' potential kingmaker or minister president role in Thuringia's political landscape is something that BSW's popular candidate Katja Wolf could aspire to.
