What you need to know about Britain's unexpected July general election
In the near future, we'll find out if Sunak's decision turns out to be a brilliant move or a major flop. Prepare for a hectic six-week period that will monopolize the UK airwaves - once again, putting political disputes in the spotlight in a nation exhausted by a turbulent period.
If present polls are accurate, the opposition Labour Party will emerge victorious, effectively marking the end of the Conservatives' 14-year tenure in power. This would lead to the installation of a center-left government led by Keir Starmer, a former barrister. Any other outcome would signify a surprising triumph for Sunak which even many members of his own party consider improbable - extending the Conservative dynasty towards the two-decade mark.
With so many unanswered questions, let's dive into the details.
Why did Sunak choose to call an election now - is it a risky move?
Although Sunak was obliged to hold a general election by December and conclude it by the following month, the specific timing was left to his discretion. In December 2022, he announced the election would take place in 2024, not January 2025, and later claimed his "assumption" was for it to occur in the second half of the year - which is July 4th.
However, his deliberations were kept under wraps, causing much speculation in Westminster. The main dilemma he faced was that the economy was in a slump, and waiting until October or November could have allowed it to recover slightly. Meanwhile, the UK was set to experience a surge in small-boat crossings by asylum seekers during the warmer summer season, potentially disrupting his key campaign message on migration. Within hours of receiving some encouraging economic news (a reduction in the rate of inflation), Sunak decided to take the plunge and announce the election.
Who's anticipated to win - is it a sure thing for Labour?
It is widely expected that Sunak's Conservative Party will lose the upcoming election. Labour have consistently led in public opinion polls since the end of 2021 and, under Sunak's leadership, have seen their poll lead averaging around 20 points. This disparity is projected to translate to a substantial majority in parliament should the elections occur.
The Conservative brand has been tarnished by Partygate scandals and the chaotic tenure of Liz Truss, who became prime minister after Johnson's departure. With Sunak struggling to make a dent in Labour's lead throughout his tenure, his team seeks to make the campaign about "me versus him" in their messaging. While Starmer enjoys a significant advantage in leadership polls, this gap is slimmer when compared to the overall vote margin, hinting that Sunak might try to reframe the election as a personal battle. Some experts see parallels with 2017, when Jeremy Corbyn, then-Labour leader, trailed Theresa May by a similar margin before primarily focusing on a personal election narrative; however, it remains a formidable challenge for Sunak.
What's next?
While parliament is already in campaign mode, it has a few days to attend to pressing matters before dissolving. With the parliament formed in 2019 being dissolved, Sunak's government will continue functioning in a truncated capacity. The focus for all political parties will be the race across the country to win over public support. TV debates are likely scheduled, enabling Sunak and Starmer to face each other directly. On July 4th, Britons will head to the polls to cast their votes and, depending on the results, an announcement will be made not long after July 4th.
Who is Keir Starmer?
Rishi Sunak's rival for leadership is Keir Starmer, currently leading the Labour Party. If Sunak fails to pull off an unexpected victory, the way is clear for Starmer to become the UK's next prime minister.
A former human rights lawyer, who later served as Britain's top prosecutor, Starmer entered politics later in his life. He became a Labour MP in 2015 and in less than five years was the party's leader. This was following his time as their shadow Brexit Secretary during the extended UK exit from the European Union.
Starmer inherited a party that was struggling after their worst electoral defeat in years. However, he prioritized changing the culture within the party. This involved challenging left-wing supporters of former leader Jeremy Corbyn and apologizing publicly for a long-standing antisemitism scandal that had damaged the party's reputation.
He has aimed to position himself in the center of British politics and is seen by his supporters as a principled and serious leader, focusing on addressing the underlying issues of the country. Opponents, including both those within his own party and those on the right end of the political spectrum, argue he lacks charisma and fresh ideas, and accuse him of failing to articulate a grand vision for the nation.
Who Are the Other Potential Candidates?
Though Sunak and Starmer are presumed to be the frontrunners, their campaigns could be disrupted by smaller parties.
Sunak is especially vulnerable to the prospect of the Reform Party, a conservative group pushing for stricter immigration policies. The Liberal Democrats, a pro-European and centrist group, could also impact him as they have gained support in prosperous parts of England.
Starmer, on the other hand, is better equipped to challenge other parties. In Scotland, he could aim to end the Scottish National Party's (SNP) lengthy rule over the ballot box, taking advantage of recent doubts about the party's leadership. He will need to be cautious, though, about the Green Party, which has battled with him for the liberal vote.
In recent local elections, concerns over Labour's stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict have affected their performance in local Muslim communities.
The UK Election Process
In the UK, voters do not directly elect the prime minister. Instead, they vote for a representative in their local constituency to serve as a Member of Parliament (MP).
The party with the most number of wins across the 650 constituencies automatically gains the prime minister role, enabling them to form a government. So, 326 constituencies are the threshold for an overall majority.
If there isn't a majority, they must seek support from other parties either by ruling as a minority government or forming a coalition.
The monarch retains an important role. King Charles III must approve the formation of a government, call for an election, and dissolve parliament. This is a formal role only, and he will not intervene in political matters or overrule the election results.
What Will Be the Deciding Factors in the Election?
How the election will play out depends on which topics come to the forefront.
Labour will try to frame the election as a referendum on 14 years of Conservative rule, capitalizing on the public's exhaustion with a party that has seen a flurry of changes at the top and managed to oversee Brexit, economic turmoil, and several scandals. Starmer will likely emphasize growing living costs and the state of the National Health Service, which is stretched to its limit.
By contrast, Sunak plans to emphasize migration. His goal is to stop refugees from crossing the channel. And he will argue that the economy is recovering and isn't safe to entrust to another party.
Early indications also suggest Sunak may make leadership a dominant theme in his campaign, referencing his experience as finance minister during the pandemic in his first speech and critiquing Starmer's track record.
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In the global context, the outcome of the UK election could impact various international relations and policies. Despite the Conservatives currently facing a significant deficit in polls, an unlikely victory for Sunak could sway international perceptions towards continued Conservative rule in the UK.
Under a center-left government led by Keir Starmer, the UK's approach to issues such as climate change, immigration, and international diplomacy might shift, potentially influencing the UK's relationships with world powers.
Source: edition.cnn.com
