What should investors do now?
The stock markets are experiencing an unpleasant day. It's going downhill worldwide, even gold is losing value. Tech stocks are particularly hard hit. Is the worst over? At least in the short term, a strong counter-movement should be imminent, says Daniel Saurenz from the stock portal "Feingold Research" in an interview with ntv.de.
ntv.de: It doesn't look good at all on the stock markets. What's going on?
Daniel Saurenz: The previously invincible stock market is being hit simultaneously at several points. Investors are immediately switching from the AI stock party to recession fears. This needs to be processed on the market and is accompanied by the stop of the "carry trade", i.e. borrowing in Japanese yen and dancing on the volcano of very high US stock prices at the same time.
ntv.de: With the "carry trade", investors borrow money cheaply in Japan and invest it abroad to achieve higher yields. The strong yen is making these deals unprofitable, investors are now liquidating their positions. Meanwhile, tech stocks are being crushed worldwide. Is this just the beginning - or is the worst over?
We are currently experiencing a black long weekend that actually started on Thursday and is dragging into Monday. Now, one must distinguish between the short and long term. Short-term, given the sentiment data, a strong counter-movement should be imminent, which could push the DAX, Nasdaq, and Nikkei up by as much as five percent. In the medium term, the correction in stocks like Apple, Meta, Alphabet, and even Nvidia is still manageable. More could come if interest rate fears and recession panic persist.
What should investors do now - protect themselves from further losses and sell, or follow the motto: eyes closed and through?
Those who hopefully had hedges in their portfolio can now indeed take profits from these hedges. We recommend a three-step plan in our stock service. First, reduce the hedges and switch to cash, then gradually build up stock positions in the third step. However, please do so in stages and in such a way that you remain able to act. No expert and no private investor will hit the exact low of the stocks, it would be pure luck.
Many investors have invested in ETF savings plans...
Savings plans should not be stopped now, there was an opportunity for that weeks ago, if at all. For example, the Nikkei has lost 27 percent from its record level. So, those who have always wanted Japanese stocks now have the chance to start a savings plan. Similarly, for investors who found the Nasdaq too expensive above 20,000 points.
What can investors learn from the crash?
Every crash is a crash course for beginners on the stock market, and this one is no exception. In the medium term, one can see it as an entry opportunity, and currently, it shows above all that a portfolio should contain security mechanisms that may seem boring and unnecessary in good market times. Those who now have put options as a hedge or control their portfolio via the cash quote will get through these days quite well.
Who hasn't been on the stock market yet, can they start now or is it better to stay away from stocks?
Investors who haven't been involved at all and want to find their way to the stock market can now take their first steps. After all, there's one certainty - they're not buying at the most expensive record prices, and a lot of hot air has been let out. Incidentally, this also applies to Bitcoin and Ethereum in the crypto sector.
Interview with Daniel Saurenz by Jan Ganger
The unpleasant day in the stock markets has led to a decrease in share prices, including tech stocks. Investors are now considering selling their tech stock positions due to recession fears and the unprofitability of the "carry trade".
Despite the current downturn, Daniel Saurenz predicts a strong counter-movement in the short term, which could potentially push up the DAX, Nasdaq, and Nikkei by up to five percent.
