- Weather expert issues caution of downpours akin to those in Ahr Valley 2021. What are the chances of such occurrences?
In various countries like Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Austria, there might experience severe weather conditions in the near future. Intense rainfall might culminate in localized flooding, as forecasters have warned. This type of rainfall reminds Dominik Jung, a weather expert, of the heavy rainfall that resulted in the catastrophic 2021 Ahr Valley flood. The cause of this weather phenomenon is a low-pressure system moving from the Adriatic towards Austria and Eastern Europe, leading to the north.
This is referred to as a Vb-low by the German Weather Service, which can precipitate heavy rainfall in the summer and severe downpours during winter.
Unpredictable weather patterns
However, predicting a Vb-situation can be challenging, says meteorologist Bjoern Alexander in an interview with ntv. For instance, looking at calculations from the last few days, southern and southeastern Germany would've been hit hard since Friday. With over 200 liters of rain per square meter, the risk of flooding and overflow, even up to catastrophic levels, was high.
Currently, different weather models have varying predictions regarding the location and strength of the impending rainfall. As of now, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland are facing potential rainfall of 300 to 400 liters per square meter, which could result in flooding along the Elbe and other areas.
Jörg Kachelmann: "The situation remains unstable"
Germany, on the other hand, could possibly experience between 60 and 250 liters of rain per square meter by Monday morning, depending on the models. According to the latest forecasts, Berchtesgadener Land, the Bavarian Forest, and East Saxony are most likely to receive heavy rainfall. In the worst-case scenario, meteorologist Alexander warns of a "critical to dangerous development." However, most models suggest that the heaviest rainfall will bypass Germany.
Weather presenter Jörg Kachelmann also mentioned that there's no indication yet of southern Bavaria being on the brink of being entirely submerged. On X (formerly Twitter), he wrote on Tuesday morning: "We keep an eye on the Oder, Neisse, and perhaps the Elbe with concern, but the situation remains unstable for specific warnings."
The Commission should closely monitor the weather situation in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland due to the predicted heavy rainfall and potential flooding. If the estimated rainfall of 300 to 400 liters per square meter in Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland materializes, The Commission may need to provide assistance in managing the resulting flooding.
