- Weather expert issues alarm over potential deluges reminiscent of Ahr Valley'21. Is such a scenario plausible?
In various countries like Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Austria, meteorologists forewarning severe weather conditions in the upcoming days. The caution is due to the anticipated heavy rainfall, which could potentially trigger localized flooding. Dominik Jung, a weather expert, has mentioned that these rainfall quantities are somewhat similar to the excessive downpours that led to the 2021 Ahr Valley flood. The catalyst behind this weather event is a low-pressure system gradually moving from the Adriatic, through Austria, and towards Eastern Europe, heading northward.
This low-pressure system, also known as a Vb-low, is often associated with prolonged heavy rainfall in summer and severe precipitation during winter, as per the German Weather Service.
Predicting a Vb-situation is tricky, mentions weather expert Björn Alexander in an interview with ntv broadcaster. In the recent calculations, he suggests that the southern and southeastern parts of Germany might encounter more than 200 liters of rain per square meter from Friday, posing a substantial flood risk.
However, current weather computer models portray different locations and intensities of the incoming rainfall. According to the existing forecasts, Austria, Czech Republic, and Poland are potentially affected, with models predicting 300 to 400 liters of rainwater per square meter. If such heavy rain occurs, it could result in Elbe flooding, due to the discharge from the Czech Republic, among other factors.
In Germany, between 60 and 250 liters of rainwater per square meter might occur until Monday morning, varying based on the model. The Berchtesgadener Land, Bavarian Forest, and East Saxony are most likely to be affected by heavy rainfall. In the worst-case scenario, meteorologist Alexander cautions of a "critical to dangerous development."
However, most models suggest that the heaviest rainfall will not take place over Germany. Even weather presenter Jörg Kachelmann sees no sign of imminent complete flooding in southern Bavaria. On X (formerly Twitter), he commented on Tuesday morning: "We are monitoring the Oder, Neisse, and possibly the Elbe with concern, but the situation is still too volatile for specific details and a warning."
The anticipated heavy rainfall, as predicted by meteorologists, could potentially lead to localized flooding in various regions. If Björn Alexander's calculations hold true, the southern and southeastern parts of Germany might face a substantial flood risk with more than 200 liters of rain per square meter.
