Red Sea - "We need a coordinated mission now": Shipowners' association calls for more military presence after attacks on ships
Ms. Haesler, a merchant shipwas attacked again this week on a sea route in the Middle East. The Houthi rebels allegedly only want to let through freighters carrying aid for the Gaza Strip and regard all others as "legitimate targets" for their forces. What does this mean for trade by sea?
What the Houthi rebels have now announced is a de facto blockade of Israel. They want to ensure that no more goods reach Israel. However, the affected region in the Red Sea is the entrance to the Suez Canal. This is one of the busiest waterways in the world, with 65 ships passing through it every day, accounting for twelve percent of global goods traffic. The current situation is therefore clearly a threat to the free movement of goods and supply chains. The announcement by the Houthis that they intend to attack all ships bound for Israel, regardless of their flag, adds a new dimension.
Can the Houthis even tell which ship is headed forIsrael and which is not?
That is precisely the risk facing the shipping companies. Nobody knows what criteria the Houthis will ultimately use to make their decision and attacks can also go wrong, i.e. accidentally hit other ships. There is therefore a general risk for all merchant ships currently passing through the Red Sea area.
The Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which separates the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is currently the mainfocusof attention. What goods are transported along it?
Really everything is transported there: Food, furniture, medicines, grain, cement, coal and, of course, oil and liquid gas, which is particularly important for Europe. If nothing could be transported in this area, it would not only affect one specific area of goods, but would be all-encompassing.
Europe gets a lot of its oil and liquid gas from the Red Sea. Europe and Germany would therefore be particularly hard hit.
In principle, the current security situation is a problem for all countries. But the Suez Canal is the gateway to Europe, both for imports and exports. It is primarily used for trade between Europe and Asia. Traffic there is therefore important on the one hand to ensure our security of supply. On the other hand, as an exporting country, Germany is particularly affected if commercial shipping is affected by unsafe sea routes.
Are the effects already noticeable?
There have been no short-term effects so far. We don't yet have empty supermarket shelves like in coronavirus times. However, this could change in the medium term if the situation worsens and ships have to divert via the Cape of Good Hope near Cape Town. This is the only alternative route and extends the sea route by 14 days. This naturally causes delays in the supply chains. So far, however, this alternative route has only been used occasionally.
A longer sea route probably also means higher costs.
The calculation is difficult to make because the passage through the Suez Canal is also associated with high costs and insurance premiums for the route through the Red Sea have risen sharply. The costs incurred on a longer sea route are primarily fuel costs. In addition, there may be changes in operational procedures if the ship is in port 14 days later. And, of course, a longer route is also more harmful to the climate because it causes far more CO2 emissions than the short route through the Suez Canal.
How much more do shipowners currently have to pay for insurance if they want to sail through the Red Sea?
Unfortunately, we have no insight into this. The amount of the premium depends on the insurer's risk assessment, i.e. whether a ship has a US connection or even an Israeli connection, for example. In some cases, Israeli ships are no longer insured at all.
Which shipping companies and nations sail through the Red Sea waterway?
A great many pass through there. However, ships with a European connection make up a very large proportion. That's why we in the association also want the government or Europe to take action.
When does it become too dangerous to sail through the strait in question?
That is a difficult question. Shipping companies are currently deciding on a very short-term basis whether or not to send their ships through certain sea areas based on current situation reports and safety assessments. At the moment, no one is saying: "My ship will be leaving in a week and it's no problem to send it off. Unlike piracy, where the attackers approach the ship by boat, the Houthis have attacked from the air in recent incidents. Although there are many safety precautions on board a ship and clear procedures in the event of certain threats, the ships are at the mercy of air attacks. This is what makes the situation so delicate.
Shipowners are calling for military protection in the Middle East to be stepped up. Is there no way around rearmament in the region right now?
I wouldn't call it rearmament, it's about more military resources. The USA already called for an international partnership last week and, like France, already has frigates on the ground. The tanker flying the Norwegian flag, which was shot at on Monday, would otherwise probably have been hit harder. We now need a coordinated EU mission together with Norway, the USA, the UK and whoever else wants to join in. This is a problem of major proportions which, at the end of the day, threatens the prosperity and freedom of us all. All European shipping associations have spoken to each other this week and agree that the EU must take action here. The military presence of a community of states to secure the sea route is in itself a signal to the region.
What must the mission in the Red Sea look like for it to be truly effective?
One ship or one frigate will not be enough. As shipowners, we propose extending the scope of the Atalanta mission. This mission is running in the Horn of Africa off Somalia and is aimed at curbing piracy and has already been implemented. We don't have time to discuss it for two years, we need to ensure greater security quickly. Missions that are already underway are a good place to start.
How explosive is the current situation with regard to a further escalation of the Middle East conflict?
The region has not seen an escalation like the current Hamas attack on Israel for a long time. The entire region has become unstable as a result, in addition to an already geopolitically unstable situation. In my opinion, everything is to be expected. It would be wrong to say that there will be a catastrophe. But it would be just as wrong to simply assume that the situation will ease. We must at least prepare ourselves for the fact that the conflict will continue for longer and could even get worse.
The coronavirus pandemic and the Russian war of aggression have shown how easily supply chains can be shaken. What would a reduction in traffic through these straits mean for the global economy now?
Restrictions on trade routes always have an impact on the global economy, whether it was the blockade in the Suez Canal or the disrupted supply chains in the coronavirus era. If goods can no longer be delivered on time and in sufficient quantities, this has an impact on the global economy - especially if this is the case over a medium to long period of time. The longer such a blockade lasts and the less hopeful economists are about the situation, the greater the impact. And in the shipping industry, of course, the effects are felt immediately.
So how likely is it that the supply situation will be threatened by the situation in the Red Sea?
I can't give you a percentage, the situation is too complex for that. One thing is clear: if maritime supply chains are disrupted, supply in the countries concerned is at risk. After all, the majority of goods come by sea. This does not mean that we will go hungry in Europe. But we will find that goods are not available or that the delivery time for a sofa is three months instead of three weeks.
This interview first appeared in "Capital", which, like stern, belongs to RTL Germany
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The Red Sea blockade announced by the Houthi rebels is a threat to the free movement of goods and supply chains, particularly affecting trade between Europe and Asia. This is due to the Suez Canal being the gateway to Europe and a major waterway for global goods traffic. The Houthi rebels have declared all ships bound for Israel as legitimate targets, posing a risk for shipping companies passing through the Red Sea.
The Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which separates the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, is currently the main focus of attention. It's a crucial route for transporting food, furniture, medicines, grain, cement, coal, and oil and liquid gas to Europe. European countries, including Germany, would be particularly impacted if navigation through this area is disrupted.
If the situation worsens and ships have to divert via the Cape of Good Hope near Cape Town, it would lead to extended sea routes, causing delays in supply chains and higher fuel costs. The costs associated with the longer route include fuel expenses and operational changes if the ship arrives in port later. Additionally, a longer route results in more CO2 emissions, harming the climate.
In some cases, Israeli ships are no longer insured due to the current security situation in the Red Sea. Multiple shipping companies from various nations, mainly those with European connections, pass through the area, making a collective response crucial.
The USA recently called for an international partnership to ensure safety in the Red Sea. Some countries, like France, have already deployed naval vessels in the region to secure maritime traffic. Shipowners' associations in Europe have urged for a coordinated EU mission, along with other nations, to protect the sea route from potential attacks.
It remains uncertain when sailing through the Red Sea will become too dangerous. Shipping companies make decisions to navigate through specific sea areas based on current situation reports and safety assessments. Air attacks, which pose a significant risk to merchant ships, should be considered carefully by shipowners deciding whether to send their vessels through certain sea areas.
The effects of the current situation on the supply chain are not yet noticeable, but they could become evident in the medium term. Currently, there are no empty supermarket shelves like during the coronavirus pandemic. However, it is essential to prepare for potential disruptions and extended delivery times.
In light of the current conflict in the Middle East, all parties should be prepared for further escalation and potential regional instability. The effects of supply chain disruptions on the global economy are significant, especially with restrictions on trade routes lasting for an extended period. The possibility of this happening in the Red Sea should not be underestimated, and steps should be taken to ensure continuity of supply.
Source: www.stern.de
