Researchers - Warning against unconstitutional allocation of mandates after elections
Political researcher Robert Vehrkamp warned of an unconstitutional distribution of mandates after the Brandenburg state election. The Bertelsmann Foundation expert outlines the case where the AfD, with an assumed result of around one quarter (26.5 percent) of second votes, could gain more than one third of the seats in the Landtag. This would result in what is known as a "constituent minority," meaning that the constitution could not be amended without the AfD. This could occur if the AfD significantly more direct mandates than their second vote share would warrant. And since the size of the Landtag in Brandenburg is capped at 110 members, the other parties would not be able to receive enough compensatory mandates to correct the distortion caused by the AfD's surplus.
According to the politician expert in a "Policy Brief" of the Bertelsmann Foundation, if the election result on September 22, 2022 in Brandenburg follows the current trend, the incumbent coalition government could defend its majority, but lose it again due to the large number of surplus mandates. At the same time, the AfD could reach a constitutional amending constituent minority through numerous surplus mandates, which they would not be entitled to according to their second vote share. This could lead to constitutional complaints, as the equality of the vote and the principles of proportional representation would be violated.
"If this situation arises, Brandenburg has a real problem," said the professor. "Surplus mandates would then determine the power distribution." A few hundred voters in a constituency could significantly distort the election result. "The AfD has always campaigned very vigorously against the distortion of election results through surplus mandates and even filed a lawsuit against it in Saxony once."
The scientist proposes a one-time increase in the maximum size of the Landtag as a potential solution for the election. According to the policy brief, "the only short-term, realistic electoral law solution would be a one-time increase in the maximum size of the Landtag from the current 110 to, for example, 140 members." He hopes for "reason and insight" from all Landtag parties. CDU state chairman Jan Redmann had previously announced an first-vote campaign for his party in light of this scenario.
For his example, the expert bases his calculations on an average of opinion polls. According to this, the AfD would receive 26.5 percent of the votes, the SPD 19.8 percent, and the CDU 18.5 percent. The Greens reached 7 percent. The red-black-green coalition would still have a majority according to the second votes. The Left Alliance (BSW) landed in the scenario at 11.5 percent. "It's not about the AfD, but about a problem with the Brandenburg electoral law," said Vehrkamp. "Corresponding surplus effect of the SPD or the CDU would also be constitutionally problematic."
Three weeks before the Brandenburg election, state elections will take place in Saxony and Thuringia. A possibly constitution-violating distribution of mandates is considered unlikely for the two states by a politics researcher at the Bertelsmann Foundation: "Thuringia has a full equalization of mandates," said Vehrkamp. "And in Saxony, the opinion poll situation is currently quite different than in Brandenburg."
Brandenburg Election Law Study Bertelsmann Foundation on Mandate Distribution Brandenburg
- In the Brandenburg Election Law Study published by the Bertelsmann Foundation, political researcher Robert Vehrkamp raised concerns about an unconstitutional distribution of mandates if the AfD gains more than one third of the seats in the Landtag despite only receiving around a quarter of the second votes.
- The AfD, with a projected 26.5% of second votes in the Brandenburg state election, could potentially attain a constitutional amending constituent minority due to numerous surplus mandates, according to Vehrkamp's Policy Brief for the Bertelsmann Foundation.
- The CDU's state chairman, Jan Redmann, announced an initial vote campaign for his party in response to this potential scenario, acknowledging its implications for power distribution in Brandenburg.
- The Bertelsmann Foundation expert points out that if Brandenburg's Landtag size cap remains at 110 members, it would be challenging for other parties to receive sufficient compensatory mandates to correct the distortion caused by the AfD's surplus.
- Vehrkamp suggests a one-time increase in the maximum size of the Landtag as a potential solution to address the issue of surplus mandates, hoping for consensus among all Landtag parties in Brandenburg.
- While potential constitutional issues with mandate distribution are less likely in Saxony and Thuringia's state elections, as they have different electoral situations and proportional representation mechanisms, Brandenburg remains a significant concern for Vehrkamp and the Bertelsmann Foundation.
