Visual evidence surfaces, indicating significant setback during Russia's Sarmat missile test, as reported by experts.
The photographs captured by Maxar on the 21st of September display a crater approximately 60 meters in width at the launch silo of the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia. These images show significant damage that wasn't evident in photos taken earlier in the month.
The RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to deliver nuclear warheads to targets situated thousands of miles away in the United States or Europe. However, its development has encountered several delays and testing issues.
"It seems like a failed test," commented Pavel Podvig, an analyst situated in Geneva, who oversees the Russian Nuclear Forces project. "It's a massive hole in the ground." He indicated that there was a major incident related to the missile and the silo.
Timothy Wright, a research associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) based in London, suggested that the destruction in the vicinity of the missile silo was indicative of a failure shortly after ignition.
"One potential cause could be that the first stage (booster) failed to ignite correctly or underwent a catastrophic mechanical failure, causing the missile to collapse back or land near the silo and explode," he explained to Reuters.
James Acton, a nuclear expert from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that the before-and-after satellite images were "very convincing that there was a big explosion" and was convinced that the Sarmat test had failed.
The Kremlin redirected inquiries regarding the Sarmat to the defense ministry. The ministry didn't respond to Reuters' request for comment and hasn't released any information about planned Sarmat tests in recent times.
The US and its allies are monitoring Russia's advancement of its nuclear arsenal, given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has escalated tensions between Moscow and the West to a hazardous level not seen in more than 60 years.
Since the onset of the conflict, President Vladimir Putin has repeated that Russia maintains the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal worldwide, and advised the West not to cross a boundary that could lead to nuclear war.
Continued setbacks
The 35-meter-long (115 feet) RS-28 Sarmat, recognized as Satan II in the West, has a range of 18,000 kilometers (11,000 miles) and a launch weight exceeding 208 tons. Russian media have reported that it can carry up to 16 independently targetable nuclear warheads as well as Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles, a new system that Putin has stated surpasses Russia's adversaries.
At one point, Russia projected that the Sarmat would be ready by 2018, replacing the Soviet-era SS-18. However, the deployment date has repeatedly been postponed.
Putin mentioned in October 2023 that Russia was nearing completion of the missile. His defense minister at the time, Sergei Shoigu, stated that it would serve as "the basis of Russia’s ground-based strategic nuclear forces."
IISS analyst Wright mentioned that a test failure didn't necessarily mean the Sarmat program was in jeopardy.
"However, this marks the fourth consecutive test failure of Sarmat which, at the very least, will further delay its introduction into service and at most may cast doubt on the program's viability," he added.
Wright also suggested that the damage at Plesetsk, a test site located in a forested area in the Arkhangelsk region, approximately 800 km (500 miles) north of Moscow, would have an impact on the Sarmat program.
The delays would place pressure on the serviceability and readiness of the aging SS-18s that the Sarmat is intended to replace, as they will be required to continue operation for a longer period than originally planned, Wright noted.
Former Russian and Soviet arms control official Nikolai Sokov anticipated that Moscow would continue with the Sarmat, a product of the Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau.
He said that the Russian military had expressed a desire to preserve competition amongst rival designers and would consequently be reluctant to rely solely on Makeyev's rival, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology, as the sole supplier of missiles.
The failure of the Sarmat test, as suggested by the satellite images, could pose challenges to Russia's strategic nuclear capabilities in Europe. The RS-28 Sarmat, intended to boost Russia's defense in Europe and beyond, has faced several setbacks, including four consecutive test failures, which might impact its timely introduction and viability.
