Venezuela increases military activity near Guyana boundary, remaining in a constant state of potential conflict according to report.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington has issued a warning about the potential for a conflict between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region, which accounts for two-thirds of Guyana's national territory. Despite little to gain and much to lose, the Venezuelan government is continuing to make provocative moves in the area, escalating tensions that could potentially lead to war.
The report, shared with CNN, expresses concerns that the Venezuelan government's repeated declarations that "the Essequibo is ours" are helping to institutionalize a state of perpetual prewar readiness. In recent years, Venezuela has created new military commands and legal structures to oversee the defense of the region. Last year, tensions escalated further when Venezuela held a referendum in which voters approved the creation of a Venezuelan state within the contested region. Guyana saw this as a step towards annexation and an existential threat.
Venezuela's actions include an expansion of operations at its Anacoco Island military base, which is a point of contention between the two countries following an 1899 ruling that awarded the island to Guyana. The island's airfield has expanded and now includes a small control tower. Satellite images from March show an area next to the airfield with over 75 field tents, enough for a battalion-sized unit of several hundred personnel. These tents have since been relocated to the southern side of the airfield, demonstrating the base's ability to support a sizeable military force for over a month.
The border between Guyana and Venezuela is only 40 miles (64 kilometers) apart, and CSIS has found that at least two Iranian-built fast missile boats are stationed at Venezuela's tiny coast guard station at Punta Barima along the Essequibo River, placing Venezuelan missiles and naval forces within striking distance of the Guyana-administered region.
Guyana's small army, estimated to be less than 5,000 soldiers, lacks the hardware and manpower to defend itself against potential Venezuelan aggression. To show support for Guyana, the United States sent two F/A-18 fighter jets over its capital, Georgetown, in a show of "routine security cooperation and expanding bilateral defense partnership" with the country.
Guyana, which is about the size of Idaho, is home to vast oil reserves and is on track to becoming the world's highest per capita oil producer. However, its small army may not be able to stand up against possible Venezuelan aggression.
Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at CSIS and lead author of the report, believes that the upcoming Venezuelan elections at the end of July could motivate Maduro to escalate against Guyana. CSIS fears that instead of backing down after the vote, Maduro may escalate his rhetoric and actions related to the Essequibo region as a means of distracting from his failed record. With millions of people having fled the country due to poor economic conditions, food shortages, and limited access to healthcare, Maduro may feel the need to escalate in order to maintain political legitimacy.
"If you're Guyana, and your army is 5,000 people, it doesn't seem like the Venezuelans are taking their foot off the gas," Berg told CNN, adding that Venezuela's key internal ally, the armed forces, could pressure Maduro into starting a full-blown conflict. "Thus, one of the most concerning possibilities is that Maduro will fall victim to his own rhetoric. He has whipped up nationalist passions without providing an escape valve."
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The ongoing tension between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region has raised concerns beyond their borders, as the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington highlighted. The Americas, in particular, are watching this closely due to its potential impact on international relations.
Given the strategic resources located in Guyana and the geopolitical significance of the dispute, the situation in the Americas and indeed the world, could be affected if the situation escalates further.
Source: edition.cnn.com
