Urban expansion in Germany: Population projected to hit 85.5 million
In line with BBSR's predictions, regional differences will be pronounced by 2045. Economically robust metropolises and several rural regions, notably in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, are on track for a notable growth spurt, while structurally weak areas are expected to see population decline further.
The growth projections reach as high as 15.2% for the Ebersberg district in Bavaria and the free Hanseatic cities of Potsdam (Brandenburg), Leipzig (Saxony), and Freiburg (Baden-Württemberg). Berlin is projected to expand by 12.6%.
Conversely, the BBSR forecasts a shrinking population in districts lesser connected to metropolises. This list includes the Saxon Erzgebirgskreis (-21.6%), the Thuringian Landkreis Greiz (-22%), and the Sachsen-Anhalt Mansfeld-Südharz (-24.2%). Regions in Western Germany, such as parts of Nordhessen, Eastern Nordrhine-Westphalia, and parts of the Saarland, are also forecast to lose population.
According to BBSR, the number of retirees is expected to surge nationwide, specifically by 13.6% or 2.2 million people. In regions with an overall dwindling population, the average age is projected to significantly climb. Based on estimates, the average age exceeds 50 years in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Rügen district, the Sachsen-Anhalt Mansfeld-Südharz district, the Altenburger Land and Greiz districts in Thuringia, and the Brandenburg Spree-Neiße district.
On a positive note, the Institute's forecast anticipates a substantial increase in the number of children and adolescents in some cities. This is projected to account for approximately one fifth of the population in Berlin, Leipzig, Munich, Landshut, and Freiburg.
Peter Jakubowski, head of the Department of Space and Urban Development at BBSR, shed light on the situation, stating: "Germany's population growth is primarily fueled by immigration from abroad. If it weren't for immigration, Germany's population would be substantially lower by 2045, as the death toll would outstrip the birth rate significantly."
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- Despite the projected population growth in several cities, such as Potsdam in Brandenburg and Freiburg in Baden-Württemberg, Fribourg in Switzerland remains a compact urban center with a much smaller population.
- In comparison to the predicted population decline in some German districts, the city of Bonn, although not as robust as metropolises like Berlin or Munich, is projected to maintain a stable population.
- German cities like Munich and Leipzig, which are expected to see an increase in children and adolescents, are often favored destinations for expats and international students, contributing to their growing population.
- The German states of Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, and Saxony, which are projected to experience population growth, are known for their rich culture, well-maintained cities, and historical landmarks, attracting not just locals but also tourists from around the world.
- Despite the anticipated population decline in some rural areas of Germany, cities like Cologne and Dresden, in North Rhine-Westphalia and Saxony, respectively, continue to attract young people and professionals, ensuring their population growth.
- The German government, including its districts in Bavaria like the District of Ebersberg and branded as tourist destinations like Potsdam in Brandenburg, are closely monitoring these population trends and adjusting their urban development plans accordingly.
- In contrast, the Saxon district of Erzgebirgskreis, a region known for its traditional mineral wealth and craftsmanship, is projected to experience a significant population decline by 2045, according to BBSR's forecast.
- Just as the city of Leipzig in Saxony is expected to see a growth spurt, its neighboring city Leipzig/Halle Airport in Saxony-Anhalt is expanding its infrastructure to accommodate this growing populace and foster economic development.
- The Ebersberg district in Bavaria, predicted to have the highest population growth rate, is famously situated close to beautiful lakes and forests, making it a popular destination for those seeking a peaceful lifestyle with close proximity to the urban buzz of large German cities.
