- Upcoming Election Period's Intensity Winding Down
Before the upcoming state election in Thuringia, recent polls indicate minimal shifts in political power among parties. Although a complex yet plausible coalition is still in the works, these polls suggest.
According to a survey by Forsa, commissioned by RTL/ntv, the AfD would lead the state with 30%, followed by the CDU at 22%, BSW at 17%, the Left (led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow) at 14%, and the SPD at a mere 7%. Greens and FDP would fail to secure a seat in the state parliament.
A narrow majority could be achieved by an unusual alliance of CDU, BSW, and SPD. This unconventional partnership, although controversial, seems to be the only viable majority option in Thuringia according to the aforementioned polls.
Similarly, a ZDF-Politbarometer published early Friday morning points towards the impossibility of forming a majority government in Thuringia without the AfD or BSW. According to this survey, the AfD would secure 29% of the votes, the CDU and BSW would get 23% each, while the Left would reach 13%. The SPD is dangerously close to the 5% threshold required to secure a seat. The Green party and FDP would fail to secure a seat again, according to this poll.
Established parties lack enthusiasm to form a coalition with the AfD, considered extremist by Thuringia's domestic intelligence agency. CDU is also prohibited from forming a coalition with the Left based on a compatibility resolution.
Polls are merely snapshots of opinion climate and should not be misconstrued as election predictions. Climbing temperatures, soaring above 30 degrees Celsius during intense campaign weeks, and occasional heated debates among parties precede the final stretch of the election. Parties seek support from the top politicians of federal parties and popular figures from other states at closing rallies.
An unprecedented incident occurred just before election Sunday when BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht was attacked with red paint in Erfurt. Wagenknecht continued her speech after a brief interruption. A suspect was reportedly apprehended by security forces and taken away in handcuffs.
In the event of a power-sharing deal, the newly-established BSW could hold the kingmaker position - Wagenknecht has already laid down her conditions. In the RTL/ntv Frühstart, she also expressed readiness to negotiate: "I hope that after election day, there will indeed be an opportunity for constructive cooperation. We would welcome such an opportunity. And we will also reach out to the CDU.", she stated in the show.
The ZDF polybarometer corroborates the difficulty in forming a majority government in Thuringia without the involvement of either the AfD or BSW. According to this survey, the AfD would gain 29% of the votes, the CDU and BSW would receive 23% each, while the Left would reach 13%.
