Understanding the Latest Developments in the Ongoing Coronavirus Crisis
Lots of Individuals are currently Unwell. Covid is back in Circulation. Which SARS-CoV2 Variants are currently Prevalent? And How Dangerous can an Infection still be? The Most Relevant Answers to the Present Wave during the Fall at a Glance.
How many People currently have Covid?
Recently, the estimated amount of Covid cases was as reported by the Robert Koch Institute around 900 per 100,000 inhabitants. A total of 11,580 laboratory-confirmed Covid cases were reported to the RKI in the week from 14 October.
The total number of acute respiratory infections in Germany was notably high for the season. The RKI estimates around 6.9 million sick individuals. Samples from doctor's practices most frequently showed rhinoviruses (29 percent), i.e. the common cold viruses, and coronaviruses (19 percent).
Is the high number of respiratory infections unusual?
"If you use the time before Covid as a reference, it's already unusual. The numbers were always substantially lower back then," states the immunologist Carsten Watzl from Dortmund. This has altered in the last two years.
Now, approximately 10 percent of the population is unwell with a respiratory infection in autumn and winter. "This is certainly also due to the fact that we now have the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 as another respiratory pathogen," explains the scientist. "Therefore, I assume that we will have to get accustomed to such high infection numbers, especially at this time of year, in the coming years as well."
How does this affect absenteeism?
Since the Covid pandemic, employees have been absent from work more frequently, as reported by a representative from the Techniker Krankenkasse (TK). The reason is the significant increase in cold diagnoses, which also include Covid infections in the evaluation. In the first half of 2024, employed TK insured individuals were, on average, absent for 2.3 days due to a cold diagnosis. In 2019, before the pandemic, this was an average of 1.4 days.
The number of sick leave cases due to a respiratory infection and specifically due to a Covid infection has also increased among Barmer insured individuals in recent years, as data on incapacity for work shows. As of September 30, 2024, an average of 29.5 people out of 1000 Barmer insured individuals with sick pay entitlement were absent due to a respiratory infection. In 2019, this was only around 13.6 in the same period.
How can I tell if I have Covid?
An illness can induce varying symptoms in everyone, explains Watzl. For some, it may feel like a regular cold or a stuffy nose. Others may become more seriously ill. Some people may have fever or shortness of breath. Even then, it's hard to say whether it's Covid or the flu, according to the immunologist.
A clear sign is a loss of smell or taste. However, this has become very rare. To be sure, a Covid test often helps.
Which variants are currently prevalent?
The Covid variant XEC has been spreading in Germany for several weeks. According to RKI data, it was most recently detected with a share of 39 percent. The most common Covid type was the subline KP.3.1.1, with a share of 40 percent. Both are sublines of the omicron variant and seem to spread faster than previous SARS-CoV-2 lines, according to scientists. This is not unusual, as virologist Sandra Ciesek recently said. The virus continues to mutate and always finds new ways to infect people.
Omicron Variants are primarily Spreading in Upper Respiratory Tracts
According to Watzl, the Omicron variants are mainly multiplying in the upper respiratory tracts, allowing them to spread more quickly. Moreover, these variants may be able to bypass existing immunity in the population more easily. However, they are still far from being as contagious as measles.
Is XEC more Dangerous?
Both the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) continue to assess the risk to public health as low, according to the RKI. This means that the variant typically does not cause particularly severe disease courses.
The XEC variant also does not seem to cause specific symptoms. "It's extremely difficult to deduce the sublineage from individual Covid symptoms," explained Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS) a few days ago. This is because Covid symptoms are too diverse.
How Dangerous is a Covid Infection?
"For most people, a Covid infection is now just annoying and unpleasant, but not so threatening to one's health that one would have to go to the hospital," said Watzl. Older people over 60 are particularly at risk of severe illness. However, there are now significantly fewer severe cases and long-term effects than in 2020 and 2021, according to the RKI.
There are still deaths, similar to the flu or respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), but the numbers are much lower than during the pandemic. So far, 193 deaths with a Covid infection have been reported to the RKI this season. Most of those affected are people with a weakened immune system due to a pre-existing condition or organ transplant.
How to Protect Yourself and Others
The Standing Vaccination Commission (STIKO) recommends that people aged 60 and over and adults with underlying conditions get a booster shot in the fall. Unfortunately, risk awareness has decreased and vaccination rates are low, says Watzl.
"Even though the majority of the population may be cleared, there's still a segment that requires shielding. We shouldn't cease promoting and advocating for vaccinations."
Adhering to the mandatory use of face masks and maintaining a safe distance is still crucial for your own safety and others'. This could potentially keep the infection rate slightly in check as well.
Predictions for the Upcoming Season
Watzl forecasts a continuous rise in cases until Christmas. "We'll also witness a surge in critical cases, predominantly affecting the elderly with underlying health issues." The scenario is anticipated to improve around New Year's, following the pattern of previous years.
The current prevalence of infectious diseases, including infectiousforms of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, such as the XEC variant, is contributing to the high number of respiratory infections, with around 10% of the population affected during fall and winter. Despite the high infection rates, a Covid infection is now generally perceived as annoying and unpleasant, but not as threatening to one's health as it was in 2020 and 2021. The public health risk associated with the XEC variant, as assessed by both the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO), remains low.
