Ukraine's energy provision is bracing for its 'toughest challenge yet' as the conflict heads towards its third winter.
Russia has repeatedly struck Ukraine's energy facilities with missiles and drones since their comprehensive attack in February 2022, but these assaults have grown more fierce lately, putting Ukraine in a perilous situation as winter approaches with its chill.
In a statement Thursday, IEA executive director Fatih Birol acknowledged, "Ukraine’s energy system has managed to endure the past two winters due to the tenacity, bravery, and innovativeness of its people as well as sturdy cooperation from its external allies."
However, Birol cautioned, "This winter will undeniably present its toughest challenge yet."
Last month, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks on Ukraine since the war began, launching over 200 missiles and drones primarily at energy infrastructure. The barrage led to power outages in several Ukrainian towns, impacting millions of households. Moreover, Ukraine has retaliated by targeting Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Prior to that attack by Moscow, over two-thirds of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity was offline due to destruction, damage, or occupation by Russian forces, as per IEA's report.
Consequently, rolling blackouts, which may also affect water supply, have become a common occurrence in Ukraine.
"The situation may worsen as the days grow shorter and colder," the agency warned. "A considerable gap between available electricity supply and peak demand may emerge — increasing the risk of even more severe disruptions to hospitals, schools, and other vital institutions during the heart of winter."
The IEA estimates that Ukraine's electricity supply deficit could reach as much as 6 gigawatts this winter, which is nearly a third of expected peak demand and equivalent to Denmark's peak annual demand, for instance.
In their report, the agency suggests 10 measures Ukraine and its allies should implement to mitigate risks to the country's energy supply. These measures include strengthening the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, speeding up deliveries of equipment and spare parts for repairs, boosting energy efficiency, and expanding the capacity to import electricity and natural gas from the European Union.
According to the report, efficient air defense is "by far the most crucial" measure to maintain a minimum level of energy services in Ukraine during the coming months.
Assistance from seized Russian assets
To aid Ukraine during the upcoming winter, the EU will distribute €160 million ($179 million) — including €60 million ($67 million) in humanitarian aid for shelters and heaters, and €100 million ($112 million) for repairs and renewable energy initiatives, with the majority of funds derived from seized Russian assets.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated Thursday, "It is only fair that Russia pays for the damage it inflicted." She also noted that the EU had provided at least €2 billion ($2.2 billion) to support Ukraine's energy system since the full-scale invasion began.
Work on repairing Ukraine's energy infrastructure and linking its electricity grid to Europe is expected to meet over 25% of the country's energy needs this winter, according to the president of the EU's executive arm.
For instance, a thermal power plant in Lithuania is being dismantled and shipped to Ukraine for reassembly. Furthermore, the EU has delivered solar panels to 21 Ukrainian hospitals, eight of which will be fully equipped by winter's arrival, she said.
Despite Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities, highlighting a significant threat in Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) commends Ukraine's resilience and the assistance from its allies. The agency anticipates that this winter will pose the toughest challenge yet for Ukraine's energy system.
To help Ukraine overcome these challenges, the EU plans to distribute €160 million, partly derived from seized Russian assets, including funds for repairs, renewable energy initiatives, and humanitarian aid.
