Two EU countries threatened with Russian gas supply cut
Ukraine's advance into Russian border territory reportedly includes the capture of Sudzha. From there, Gazprom pumps Russian gas into EU countries. The capture of this town could lead to an abrupt halt in deliveries. However, EU countries must find alternatives by the end of 2024 at the latest.
Austria and Slovakia could face a crisis: Due to Ukraine's invasion in the Kursk border region, the Kremlin could decide to stop deliveries of Russian gas via the Transgas pipeline through Ukraine. This transit will stop latest by the beginning of next year anyway, as the government in Kyiv refuses to extend the contract with Moscow that ensures deliveries through its territory.
In this, it receives support, among others, from the EU Commission. Officially, this contract expires on December 31, 2024. The pipeline previously supplied, among others, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria, and Slovakia with natural gas. Currently, however, only Vienna and Bratislava are still dependent on it. The import of Russian pipeline gas to the EU is not sanctioned. Gazprom supplies EU countries such as Hungary and Greece via the TurkStream pipeline, which runs from the southern Russian coast through the Black Sea to the European part of Turkey.
Whether Austria and Slovakia can still rely on Moscow's gas deliveries in the coming months depends on the battles of the Ukrainians in the Russian border region. In their advance into Kursk, Kyiv's troops are said to have also captured Sudzha, a town of 5,000 inhabitants in southwestern Russia.
Half of Russian pipeline imports to EU via Sudzha
Through Sudzha, the state-owned company Gazprom pumps its gas through Ukraine into EU member states. The town is said to have fallen into the hands of Ukraine, according to some social networks, including the Telegram channel Rybar, operated by Russian military bloggers. Videos circulating on the internet are also said to show Ukrainian forces in Sudzha.
On Monday, Gazprom still reported that gas was being pumped through the hub. In 2023, around 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas were supplied via Sudzha, corresponding to about half of Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe or about five percent of EU consumption. However, the situation in Sudzha could change soon.
"It is possible that Russia's President Vladimir Putin will instruct Gazprom to stop deliveries via Sudzha to the EU if the town is permanently held by the Ukrainians," says Szymon Kardas, energy expert at the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in an interview with ntv.de. Although an abrupt end to deliveries would be hardly economically sensible for Russia, Putin has often reacted more emotionally than rationally in the past when it comes to economic decisions, Kardas emphasizes. Moreover, he could use the situation politically to put pressure on Slovakia and Austria.
Austria could be supplied by Germany or Italy
In May of this year, Austria still obtained 90 percent of its gas imports through the Transgas pipeline. The Slowakia imported half of its natural gas imports via this route last year. Both countries are already working on becoming independent of Russian imports. They are supported in this by representatives of the European Union, who also want to ensure Ukraine's gas supply after the supply stop.
"The EU has been preparing for months for the gas transit agreement to end in late 2024. Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has repeatedly stated: 'We are ready to live without this Russian gas,' Birgit Schmeitzner, spokesperson for the EU Commission, told ntv.de on request. Europe is capable of covering its gas demand for the coming winter and spring - even without Russian imports via the Transgas pipeline.
According to media reports, there have been talks about filling the pipeline through Ukraine with gas from Azerbaijan. However, there is no such plan on the table at the moment. Instead, Austria and Slovakia are also looking for individual solutions to secure their energy supply. Austria could potentially be supplied by Germany or Italy, while Slovakia could rely on Poland, according to Kardas. Price increases would then be possible in both countries. However, the Austrian Ministry of Climate Protection remains calm about the situation. Any price increases in Austria would be of short duration and would not lead to disruptions on the European wholesale market.
Czech Republic was once supplied via the Transgas pipeline, but it now completely relies on other sources, as current data shows. From these data, Kardaś also reads how Hungary has substituted its gas supplies through Ukraine: Gazprom now increasingly supplies the country via the Turkstream pipeline. Only one line of Turkstream is used directly for the Turkish market, while the other also supplies EU countries. According to Kardaś, the supply volume through Turkstream has significantly increased: In the period from late January to late July last year, 6.5 billion cubic meters of gas flowed through the pipeline into the EU, compared to 8.3 billion cubic meters of gas this year. The additional gas is supplied, among others, to Hungary, according to Kardaś."
The capture of Sudzha by Ukraine could pose a threat to gas deliveries to the European Union, as half of Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe are routed through this town. The European Union is prepared for the end of the gas transit agreement via Ukraine by the end of 2024 and is exploring alternative sources, such as potential gas supply from Germany or Italy to Austria, and Poland to Slovakia.
