Tropical Cyclone Six Emerges in the Gulf, Warnings Issued for Potential Storm Impact on Mexico
The tropical disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche was situated around 320 miles south of Brownsville, Texas, late on a Sunday evening. According to the Hurricane Center's 11 p.m. ET update, the storm was exhibiting maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
The system was proceeding northwestward at a slow pace of 5 mph, with a gradual shift toward a more northerly direction anticipated within the next day or two. As per the Hurricane Center's prediction, the disturbance would continue skirting the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico until Tuesday and veer closer to the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastline on Wednesday.
Mexico's government had issued a tropical storm warning from Barra del Tordo to the Rio Grande's mouth in response to the potential threats. The National Weather Service in the United States had also placed a Tropical Storm watch from the Rio Grande's mouth up to Port Mansfield, approximately 60 miles northward.
The Hurricane Center suggested that additional watches might be issued for southern Texas and Louisiana on Monday, with the system predicted to mutate into a tropical storm on that day, showcasing more noteworthy intensification on Tuesday as a result of the Gulf's excessively warm waters. It was hypothesized to escalate into hurricane status before touching down on the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast, as per the Hurricane Center's forecast.
The upcoming named storm would be christened Francine.
An expansive area of low pressure persisted in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, generating a sprawling expanse of showers and thunderstorms, as reported by the Hurricane Center.
The storm had been given the interim designation of Potential Tropical Cyclone Six by the Hurricane Center to signal its imminent formation and its potential to bring effects within a 48-hour period requiring warning alerts.
This storm emerged during an already abnormally active Atlantic hurricane season, which had, by mid-August, spawned five named storms – three of which had transformed into hurricanes. The storm's appearance also preceded the Atlantic hurricane season's statistical peak on September 10.
Researchers from Colorado State University indicated that approximately 68% of all Atlantic tropical activity typically transpires post-September 1. The most recent activities in the Gulf came following an uncommon tranquil period in the Atlantic, marked by the absence of any named storms since Ernesto in mid-August.
The Gulf's warm waters, where temperatures fluctuated around the low 90s Fahrenheit and were around 5 degrees above the average, played a significant role in the storm's swift intensification over the weekend.
An Air Force Reserve hurricane reconnaissance plane investigated the system on Sunday afternoon, finding it still disorganized and yet to profit from the warm water fuels.
Unstable meteorological conditions in the upper atmosphere may lead to erratic movements, making it challenging to foresee the system's potential strength or location of landfall at this early stage.
However, the Hurricane Center urged individuals along the Gulf of Mexico's northwestern coast, Upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts to keep a close watch on the storm's development.
Portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast might be impacted by strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding due to heavy precipitation as early as Tuesday.
Tropical downpours are forecast to drench the region with 4 to 8 inches of rain, with up to 12 inches likely along the far northeastern Mexican coast and various sections of the Texas coast and Louisiana through Thursday.
This precipitation could lead to flash flooding and urban flooding risks.
Storm surge and rugged surf might lead to minor coastal flooding along the Mexican coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to affect the northwestern coast of Mexico starting Tuesday within the watch area.
The storm might revisit several Texas areas that were affected severely by Hurricane Beryl in July, which made landfall southwest of Houston as a Category 1 storm, causing considerable flooding and wind damage, resulting in substantial power outages around Houston.
The last time two named storms made landfall in Texas was in 2020, with Category 1 Hurricane Hanna hitting near Brownsville and Tropical Storm Beta striking Port Lavaca.
If the storm hit the Texas coastline as a hurricane, it would mark the first "double punch" in 16 years. The previous occasion two hurricanes struck Texas in the same year was in 2008, with Hurricane Dolly in Corpus Christi and Hurricane Ike in Galveston and Houston.
The previous storm to directly hit Louisiana was Category 4 Hurricane Ida in 2021.
Hurricane Center Monitors Two Other Systems in Atlantic
The National Hurricane Center is also tracking two other systems in the eastern Atlantic.
A range of showers and thunderstorms continuing to display some signs of organization was linked to an elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Favorable environmental conditions suggest that this system may develop further. “A tropical depression may form as the system wanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward through the remainder of the week,” the Hurricane Center stated, assigning a 70% chance of formation over the next seven days.
Meanwhile, low pressure situated several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands generated a vast area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is anticipated to remain stationary over the next couple of days and may interact with a tropical wave forecast to depart from the west coast of Africa on Monday.
A tropical depression might emerge during the middle or latter part of the week as the system begins moving slowly northwestward. The Hurricane Center estimated a 50% chance of formation for this system.
The upcoming weather conditions along the Gulf Coast might bring strong winds, dangerous storm surge, and flooding due to heavy precipitation, starting as early as Tuesday. The warm waters in the Gulf, around 90 degrees Fahrenheit, are providing the storm with enough energy to intensify.
