Trend reversal 2023? - The Germans and meat

Food - Trend reversal 2023? - The Germans and meat

For representatives of large abattoir operators, the matter is clear: at the Association of the Meat Industry's (VDF) balance sheet on Thursday, lobbyists proclaimed a turnaround and painted an optimistic picture. Sentences such as "Germans are eating meat again", "The bottom has been reached" and "The image of meat is recovering" were uttered. What is the truth? Is meat really playing a greater role in consumers' diets again?

There is no shortage of statistics and figures on the subject. Recently, meat as a foodstuff has become considerably less important on our plates. According to the Federal Statistical Office, meat production fell by a good eight percent in 2022 compared to the previous year, and by a further six percent in the first half of 2023 alone.

According to the Federal Agricultural Information Center (BLZ), Germans ate 52 kilograms of meat per capita in 2022 - the lowest figure since calculations began in 1989. According to the 2023 Nutrition Report published by the Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), the proportion of people who eat meat and sausages every day fell from 25 to 20 percent this year.

Meat consumption: reduced and more conscious

The latest empirical study can be found in the sustainability study recently published by the Rewe Group, the GfK Consumer Panel and the German Sustainability Award Foundation. Study author Robert Kecskes says: "Domestic meat consumption is declining in all households."

Between 2018 and 2023, the proportion of households making a conscious effort to reduce meat consumption rose from 37% to more than 47.5%. At the same time, however, the proportion of daily consumer goods spent on meat, including fish, has only fallen slightly in recent years (minus 3.9% since 2018) and is almost stable in some age groups. When it comes to Germans and their relationship with meat, market researcher Kecskes sees a few conspicuous features.

Firstly, although an above-average number of the older generation want to reduce their meat consumption, spending on meat is still higher than among younger people. According to Kecskes, this is also due to the fact that older people are "meat-socialized" and used to larger quantities of meat.

Secondly, the motivation to eat less meat is very different. Older people tend to justify this with health aspects, while younger people cite animal welfare and the climate.

Thirdly, according to the study, the amount of meat consumed is decreasing, especially among financially strong households and younger people, but not the proportion of expenditure - because people often switch to more expensive and higher-quality meat. The so-called Generation Z - mainly people born between the mid-1990s and 2010 - are increasingly avoiding meat.

Fourthly, Kecskes sees a "cultural change" in meat. He expects the trend - reduced and more conscious - to spread as soon as the financial situation eases. In terms of consumption, an increasing demand for sustainable products can be observed in all age groups. The slowdown in 2022/2023 is due to economic circumstances.

The schnitzel and "politically correct answers"

The meat industry is trying to read at least a partial success into this. The negative trend of recent years - the decline in meat consumption and quantities purchased - has at least weakened considerably. Meat consumption in the private sector only fell by 0.7 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, compared to 8.1 percent in 2022. The figures also show that meat continues to play an important role in the lives of many people, and for more than 60% it is even indispensable as a foodstuff.

According to the industry, it is not impressed by the fact that more and more people are turning away from meat. When asked about this, VDF board member Hubert Kelliger says: "Consumers have learned to give politically correct answers: 'I'll eat less schnitzel and save the world'. This has nothing to do with purchasing behavior." However, very few VDF representatives believe in a return to the old production volumes. They expect a stabilization, not a return to the slaughter figures of five years ago.

What is certainly not dampening the mood in the meat industry is the view of the competition. Following rapid growth in the meat substitute market in recent years, the trend is now stagnating. The share of expenditure and quantities per household are even falling slightly. Why? For Kecskes, the products have "arrived at the end of a hype in a niche".

Organic and animal husbandry levels have made meat consumption interesting again for many "flexitarians" - this group largely avoids meat and meat products, but not always. Meat alternatives would have to "shed their flair as vegan substitutes". If they did not convey a positive attitude to life, they would become boring for consumers.