- These economic factors make people choose AfD and BSW
The alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) of the former Left Party members is not even a year old and managed to secure 6.2 percent in the European elections, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is partly considered extremist, got 15.9 percent nationwide, even overtaking the ruling SPD (13.9 percent).
The AfD dominated particularly in the eastern part of Germany. A study by the worker-friendly German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shows that populist parties tend to succeed where negative structural characteristics are present.
Income and Youth Unemployment
Factors include lower income and high youth unemployment. Current figures show that four out of the five districts with youth unemployment rates exceeding 10 percent are in the east (Uckermark, Mansfeld-South Harz, Dessau-Roßlau, and Vorpommern-Rügen). In all these districts, the AfD won with up to 36 percent, while the BSW received at least 15 percent of the votes.
Available household income is also a relevant criterion for the electoral success of populist parties, with lower income leading to a higher likelihood of voting for the AfD or BSW. While Gelsenkirchen, a western city, has the lowest average income (18,886 euros), households in the east have significantly less per capita income due to wage disparities that persist more than 30 years after reunification. Statistics from the Federal Statistical Office show that the gap is still wide, with full-time employees in the east earning an average of 824 euros less than their western counterparts.
Migration and Demography
Surprisingly, the issue of migration plays a role in party choice, but it is less influential than economic factors such as unemployment and income. "Our analysis shows that migration is an insufficient explanation for the strength of AfD and BSW in the 2024 European elections. Demography, particularly in areas where many young, well-educated people are leaving, is a much more important factor for the different results in the east," says DIW President Marcel Fratzscher.
While the population is aging throughout Germany, the numbers are particularly high in the east. In the district of Zeitz, for example, 41 percent of residents are at least 60 years old.
Differences between East and West, AfD and BSW
In summary, BSW and AfD are particularly successful in the east where the average age is high and education levels are low. In the west, they also perform well in regions with low income levels and many industrial workers whose jobs are threatened by automation.
Although similar factors influence the electoral results of BSW and AfD, they are not always equally successful. In areas with particularly negative structural characteristics, the vote tends to lean more towards the AfD than the BSW.
Investments in these regions can help mitigate the factors contributing to the electoral success of both parties, according to the authors. An example is the planned Intel chip factory in Magdeburg.
In the eastern regions with high youth unemployment, such as Uckermark and Vorpommern-Rügen, the AfD garnered up to 36% of the votes, while the BSW secured at least 15%. Additionally, lower income levels in regions like Gelsenkirchen in the west and the east, where full-time employees earn significantly less than their western counterparts, have been associated with higher likelihoods of voting for the AfD or BSW.
