- The Saxony Landtag Election: Balance between Disorder and Pragmatism
After the elections, the Greens and Left are focusing on healing their wounds, while the AfD is puzzled over why they didn't become the dominant force once again in a state election. Meanwhile, the CDU, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), and SPD are all eyeing each other, as they are expected to form the future government in the Free State. Some parties are disheartened, others are perplexed. The BSW, however, is radiating optimism.
Saxony's AfD General Secretary Jan Zwerg, known for his hardline stance and sharp criticism, surprisingly congratulates Minister President Michael Kretschmer (CDU) on his victory the morning after the election. "I'm a sportsman," he says, "that's what you do."
On this day, Zwerg talks extensively about the "patriotic front." He claims it's bigger than people think. Some voters also chose smaller "patriotic parties," he says. These are reserves they'd like to tap into in the future.
AfD aims to be more solution-oriented in opposition
In the end, they must convince voters that it's unwise to support a small party, especially in a tight race between the CDU and AfD. It's all about numbers, Zwerg points out. At the same time, he assures that his party will be more solution-oriented in the state's interest from the opposition.
Political scientist Tom Thieme believes that right-wing parties would have performed better if they hadn't competed with each other. The AfD received 30.6% of the votes on Sunday, while the Free Saxons managed 2.2%. "If you add both results, that's exactly 32.8% - the same percentage the AfD got in Thuringia, where there was no such competition from the far right," Thieme explains.
Thieme, from the Saxony Police University, makes it clear: The AfD missed two election targets. They didn't become the strongest force, and they can't block decisions with a blocking minority - more than a third of the seats in parliament. According to a new seat distribution calculation, the AfD only gets 40 seats in the state parliament.
Conservative party spectrum is fragmented
Parties like the Werteunion, Bündnis Deutschland, and the Free Voters were also in the race, all targeting a similar voter base. The fragmentation in this area has certainly helped the CDU to remain the strongest force in the Free State - albeit narrowly. The Union considers the election result as a mandate to govern.
Both Kretschmer and CDU General Secretary Alexander Dierks have ruled out cooperation with the AfD, despite Zwerg's overtures. The CDU had decided earlier at the federal level to not work with such extreme parties, be they right-wing or left-wing. The Left Party shares the same stance, but not the BSW.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz had already expressed his opposition to a potential coalition with the BSW this summer. When asked about cooperation with the BSW to prevent AfD ministers in the East, he said, "That's clear, we've always said that. We don't work with such extreme right-wing and left-wing parties."
In BSW's eastern headquarters, this didn't sit well. Even given the polls, it was clear that the BSW might be needed for forming the government.
Kretschmer agrees to lengthy negotiations for Saxony
That's exactly what happened in Saxony. The outcome of the state election gives the CDU the opportunity for a stable government, says Kretschmer. "I'm grateful for that." It won't be easy, and it won't happen quickly. "It's about calmly and responsibly discussing which issues are necessary now."
"If there's ever a collaboration, that doesn't mean giving up one's own positions. It would be a partnership of responsibility," says Kretschmer. "One clarifies the things one considers right and can agree on, and sticks to the other points where one disagrees."
SPD is cautious
The SPD initially hesitated. State chairman Henning Homann said he views a possible coalition involving the BSW "extremely skeptically". The BSW's course is unclear, and there are large gaps in its election program. However, the SPD is ready to take responsibility and is also ready for talks.
Leipzig political scientist Hendrik Täger predicts a difficult partnership between the CDU, BSW, and SPD. "Forming such a heterogeneous coalition and the daily business of governing in such an alliance would be a major challenge for all involved." He assigns the BSW a key role in governing over the next five years, calling the alliance "a small party with sudden statewide significance."
The CDU and SPD are considering potential partnerships to form the future government in the Free State, as the fragmentation in the conservative party spectrum has helped the CDU remain the strongest force. Despite previous oppositions, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has indicated that cooperation with the BSW might be necessary to prevent AfD ministers in the East.
In light of the AfD's aim to be more solution-oriented in opposition, they must convince voters that supporting a small party in a tight race isn't wise, as it's all about numbers, according to Zwerg of the AfD.
