The prevalence of Google's search supremacy is showing signs of decay.
For the first time in several decades, Google will not monopolize a significant portion of the US search market the following year, as predicted by advertising research firm eMarketer.
Google will continue to lead as the primary search engine, managing a 48% share of American search advertising income. Despite its long-standing dominance in search since the early Bush administration, Google continues to flourish in the sector, which is remarkable considering. However, Amazon is experiencing accelerated growth.
Amazon will control nearly a quarter of US search ad investments next year, forecasted to rise to 27% in 2026, pushing Google further behind, according to eMarketer's prediction.
This forecast initially appeared in the Wall Street Journal.
Don't be alarmed if you assume you'll have to resort to Bing or Yahoo. This isn't Google's impending demise or even a remote possibility.
Google ranks among the most valuable publicly traded companies globally, with a market value of $2.1 trillion – only surpassed by Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia. Google also maintains control in other sectors, including display advertisements, alongside Meta's parent company, and YouTube for video advertisements.
Considering each of these "additional" businesses individually, their market values surpass that of Delta Air Lines. Therefore, Google isn't going anywhere.
However, Google faces substantial threats to its business, particularly from antitrust regulators.
On Monday, a judge in San Francisco ruled that Google must allow competitors access to its Google Play Store – a significant blow to the company in its legal battle with Fortnite's creator, Epic Games. Google intends to appeal the verdict.
In August, another unfavorable decision was made when a judge characterized Google as operating an unlawful monopoly in search engineering. This judgment could result in the division or dissolution of Google's search division. Another antitrust lawsuit, initiated last month, alleges Google's misuse of market dominance in online advertising.
Meanwhile, European regulators have compelled Google to adhere to stringent regulations, resulting in multiple billion-dollar fines for violations.
Additionally, the industry is becoming increasingly cutthroat.
TikTok, the fastest-growing social media platform, is venturing into the search market. Amazon has achieved something no other tech giant has to date – creating a habit. When you want to buy something, you typically turn to Amazon, not Google. Amazon then monetizes the situation by promoting companies' items to the top of search results, boosting their sales and generating more revenue for itself. It's expected to generate $27.8 billion in search income in the US alone next year, ranking second only to Google, according to eMarketer.
Moreover, AI could revolutionize everything, allegedly.
Why use rigid language like "kendall jenner why bad bunny breakup" or "police moving violation driver rights no stop sign" when you can simply talk to OpenAI's ChatGPT and ask, "What's happening with Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny?" or "I need assistance with a moving violation involving a stop sign that wasn't visible." Google is working on this technology through its Gemini product, but its success is uncertain – especially given Apple's partnership with OpenAI and other players entering the market.
Google responded with a company blog post last week, announcing ads in its AI summaries (the AI-generated text that appears at the top of search results). It's Google's method of adapting to changing market conditions and maintaining its revenue, even as users gradually move toward AI-powered conversational search.
Google has consistently countered accusations that it's a monopoly exploiting its power with its catchphrase, "Competition is one click away." Until recently, this argument seemed far-fetched – changing to Bing or DuckDuckGo seemed implausible.
Nevertheless, today, this scenario appears more feasible.
Although Google is not in imminent danger of disappearing, all highly dominant corporations eventually face consequences of some sort. General Electric, a Dow Jones staple for over a century, split up last year and is now vastly diminished as a once-dominant entity. Sears filed for bankruptcy in 2022 and is on the brink of extinction. US Steel is attempting to sell itself to a Japanese company.
Looking back decades from now, will we regard Google as we do Yahoo or Ask Jeeves? These upcoming years could be pivotal.
Google's Market Value
eMarketer Search Advertising Predictions
Google's Response to the Judge's Ruling
European Antitrust Fine
TikTok's Foray into Search
Apple's AI Collaborations
Google's AI Technology
GE Stock Split
Sears Bankruptcy Filing
US Steel Sale Proposal
Google's diverse business ventures, including display advertisements, YouTube for video advertisements, and its AI project Gemini, collectively surpass the market value of Delta Air Lines, demonstrating its financial stability and resilience.
Despite Google's dominance in the search market, Amazon's growing popularity in search advertising is posing a significant threat, with predictions suggesting that Amazon could control nearly a quarter of US search ad investments next year.
