'The Normalization of the Kursk Operation': As Ukraine's Third Month of Russian Infiltration Passes, Putin Attempts to Minimize Impact
The initial invasion marked the first instance of foreign troops entering Russian soil since World War II, causing the Kremlin to lose face and prove to Ukraine's supporters and the world that Ukraine's military was not always on the retreat.
After nearly nine weeks, Ukraine's advance has come to a halt, with neither side reporting significant gains or counterattacks recently.
The outcome is uncertain. Analysts believe Ukraine is utilizing its initial momentum for a morale boost and potential leverage for negotiations, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to downplay the entire operation and allocate minimal resources to counteracting it.
What's happening on the ground now?
Ukraine has managed to establish a stable position in Kursk, covering about 786 square kilometers (300 square miles), according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
A Ukrainian battalion commander in Kursk, known as "Kholod," or cold, informed CNN that Russian advancements are mainly happening on the perimeters of Ukraine's stronghold. He explained that while Russia keeps trying to gain territory, the progress is incremental, and they often gain control of streets in villages but eventually retreat. In turn, Ukraine frequently counterattacks and recaptures lost ground.
Ukraine is also attempting to establish a second foothold around the Veseloe village. The Ukrainian military has not disclosed its troop numbers in the region.
Russia has deployed an estimated 40,000 troops to defend and counterattack in Kursk, with many of these forces being conscripts and reservists at the beginning of the incursion. However, the Russian government has since sent more experienced troops but did not commit as many resources as Kursk residents might hope for.
As the conflict continues, Russian authorities report that over 100,000 civilians have been displaced, with many more living behind Ukrainian lines.
“Over time, Kursk has become increasingly normalized,” Galeotti said. “We should not assume that Russians have become complacent… I think Putin has managed to delay judgment, but I do not believe it has been completely waived.”
Why hasn't Russia's response been more severe?
Russia aims to prevent diverting any resources from its main invasion in Ukraine to counteract the incursion in Kursk.
Although the incursion came as a surprise to both the government and Russian civilians, the Kremlin played it down, framing it as a "raid" and even downplaying their response as a "counterterrorism mission."
Putin's government has also characterized the operation as a "raid" and even downplayed their counterattack as a "counterterrorism mission."
One Russian military blogger put the normalization into stark terms, saying: "Most of Russia has already grown accustomed to the fighting in Kursk... Those who have no connection to Kursk are rather lethargically curious about what's happening."
Though frontlines have only shifted slightly, the fighting is reportedly intense, with Russian forces using drones, barrel artillery, and aerial bombers, according to the Ukrainian commander.
“They don’t hesitate to drop a bomb on a tree line if they believe troops are hiding there,” Ukrainian battalion commander "Kholod" claimed. He maintains that Russia has deployed a powerful group of troops and combat brigades to the area where his unit is fighting, and claims the Russian counterattack was held off by Ukraine's drone and mine attacks.
What has Ukraine gained?
Experts argue that the Kursk incursion likely had multiple goals, including establishing a propaganda victory.
“Their objective was to demonstrate to Ukraine’s Western allies that Russia is vulnerable and that there are limitations on Russia’s military power,” said Lough, adding that the incursion also highlighted Russia's rhetorical "red lines."
It also served as a morale boost for Ukrainians. Several soldiers who spoke to CNN in September said that though there have been casualties and difficult operations, giving Russia a taste of its own medicine was worth the cost.
Ukraine's objective of diverting troops away from the eastern frontlines in Kursk has not been achieved so far.
Kursk could still serve as a bargaining chip for future negotiations, experts said.
“By capturing this territory, they immediately ruled out the possibility of both the Russians and the Western allies saying, ‘Now it’s time to stop. Let's have a ceasefire,’” Lough said.
Focus on eastern Ukraine
The primary focus of the war continues to be on the frontlines in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, where troops are striving to retain control of the strategic city of Pokrovsk.
Rather than shift resources to liberating their territory, the Russian military has expanded attacks on numerous fronts in Ukraine, including in key areas of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia.
“It seems to be a high priority for the Kremlin to advance as far as possible in Donbas, regardless of the losses,” Lough concluded. “There is a sort of window that is about to close due to the roads turning to mud.”
Russia's relentless assaults on Ukraine persisted yesterday, resulting in numerous casualties in the areas of Odesa, Kherson, and Donetsk.
Following the events in Kursk, international analysts have been discussing the situation in Europe and its implications for the world. Many believe that Ukraine's successful defense against Russian advancements in Kursk could serve as a deterrent to other potential invasions, potentially shifting the geopolitical landscape of Europe.
Moreover, Ukraine's success in Kursk has given a boost to its international image, showing that it can effectively resist foreign aggression and defend its sovereignty, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by the world community.
