Local Governments - The Greens stand at risk of losing their lead in upcoming district elections.
In the aftermath of the hefty losses incurred by the Greens in the European elections in Hamburg, it's predicted they'll experience considerable vote reduction and a possible position below the SPD in the district election. Presently, they're estimated to stand at around 22% following the counting of 1550 out of 1921 voting districts. This translates to a significant eight-point decline in share in comparison to their impressive 31.2% win in the 2019 district election.
In terms of gains, the CDU and AfD appear to have made noticeable strides forward. The SPD, on the other hand, slightly consolidated its leading position which could potentially see them overtake the Greens. The Left and FDP experienced minor setbacks.
The Greens remain in the lead in Altona, Eimsbüttel, and Nord. Meanwhile, Mitte, Wandsbek, and Harburg are led by the SPD. The CDU reigns supreme in the Bergedorf district with 28.8% of the votes from 132 of the total 138 voting districts, surpassing the SPD's 26.5% and the Greens' 14.6%.
Five years ago, the Greens made history with victories across Hamburg. In the district election, they attained 31.3% of the votes, leading in four out of seven districts. The SPD, as the second strongest force, secured a 24% share of the overall votes. The CDU was third with 18.2%, followed by the Left at 10.8%, the FDP at 6.6%, and the AfD at 6.4%.
Presently, it's anticipated that the SPD could emerge victorious in the district election, boasting more than 25% of the total votes. The Greens and the CDU may both reach the 22% threshold. Meanwhile, the Left and AfD are expected to be just below the 10% mark at around 10%, while the FDP may achieve around 6%.
In the concurrently held European election, the Greens' share plummeted by 9.9 percentage points to 21.2%. The SPD was hit with a 1.1-point reduction and ended up at 18.7%. The CDU gained 0.7 points, reaching 18.4%. AfD and FDP increased by 1.5 and 1.4 points, respectively, to secure 8.0% and 7.0% shares. The Left suffered a 1.9-point loss, nabbing a 5.1% share.
The district election's counting process commenced on Monday morning and is anticipated to conclude by 18:00. More than 1700 individuals had applied for the over 350 available seats in the seven district assemblies.
Read also:
The district election in Wandsbek could pose a significant challenge for the Greens, given their recent slip in popularity. Despite leading in the 2019 district election, they might fall behind the SPD in these elections.
The SPD, along with the CDU, seems to be making strategic moves in the Municipalities of Hamburg, potentially overtaking the Greens in some districts. The FDP and Left are also part of the political landscape, with the AfD also having a presence.
The European elections in Hamburg saw the SPD and CDU maintaining their positions, while the Greens suffered a significant loss. Surprisingly, the AfD and FDP saw a modest increase in their vote shares.
In the district election, predicted trends suggest that the SPD might surpass the 25% mark, while the Greens and CDU may hover around 22%. The Left and AfD are expected to sit just below the 10% mark, with the FDP potentially achieving around 6%.
While the district election takes place, the European elections in Hamburg reveal a complex political landscape. The SPD, CDU, Greens, AfD, Left, and FDP all have significant support, making the upcoming local elections highly competitive.
The SPD, currently leading in Mitte, might extend its lead in the upcoming district election. However, the Greens remain powerful in districts like Altona and Eimsbüttel, and the CDU reigns supreme in Bergedorf. The political balances in Hamburg's municipalities will be redefined in these elections.
