The Conservative Democratic Union (CDU) clinches victory in Saxony's election, outperforming the Alternative for Germany (AfD)
The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Minister President Michael Kretschmer, who's been in power in Saxony since 1990 either solo or in partnerships, is projected to secure 31.5% or 31.8% according to ARD and ZDF respectively. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), with Jörg Urban as their top candidate, is right behind with 30.4% or 30.8%. The Bavarian Social Democratic Workers' Party (BSW) is expected to garner 11.5% to 12%.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD), currently governing in coalition with the CDU and Greens, is expected to get 7.5% or 7.6%. The Greens are projected to just scrape above the 5% threshold, receiving 5.2% to 5.5%, ensuring their entry into the state parliament.
The Left Party, according to projections, might miss the 5% threshold with 4.2% to 4.8%. However, they could potentially enter the state parliament through two direct mandates in Leipzig and a special clause in the electoral law. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) received very few votes and wasn't separately listed in the projections.
A renewal of the coalition government of CDU, SPD, and Greens might not be enough based on these projections. A three-way coalition of CDU, SPD, and BSW would have a majority, as would coalitions of CDU and BSW with either Greens or Left. Coalitions with the AfD are theoretically possible but ruled out by both the CDU and other parties in Saxony.
Kretschmer indicated before the election that he wanted to avoid a renewal of a coalition with the Greens. Coalitions with the Left are impossible for the CDU due to an incompatibility resolution. Kretschmer hasn't clearly positioned himself regarding alliances with the BSW but has called the conditions set by BSW leader Wagenknecht for government participation "unacceptable".
Kretschmer said on Sunday to CDU supporters in Dresden that while it won't be easy, they can still form a stable government for Saxony. He added that the formation of the government would require "many talks" and "patience". But politics has a responsibility, he added, "The worst of all options is to have no government at all."
Urban expressed optimism on election night that his party could still become the strongest force. However, as the vote counting continued, this seemed increasingly unlikely.
Saxony's BSW top candidate Sabine Zimmermann once again ruled out a coalition with the AfD. For her party, it is important that politics changes for the citizens, she said with a view to possible coalition talks. She expressed pride in the BSW's election result.
"It is now up to the CDU to form a stable democratic government under these difficult circumstances," explained the candidate team of the Saxon Greens, Katja Meier, Wolfram Günther, and Franziska Schubert. Their party is, in any case, "open to talks," they added.
In the upcoming state parliament, the CDU is projected to receive 41 or 42 seats, the AfD 40 to 41. The BSW will get 15 or 16 mandates, the SPD ten. The Greens are set to receive seven seats, the Left five or six.
There may have been a record in voter turnout: it stood at 74% according to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, potentially surpassing the previous high of 72.8% in 1990.
On Sunday, Minister President Kretschmer addressed CDU supporters in Dresden, expressing optimism about forming a stable government for Saxony despite the challenging circumstances. After the election, Sabine Zimmermann, the BSW top candidate, expressed pride in their party's election result and ruled out a coalition with the AfD, emphasizing the importance of changing politics for the citizens.
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