- The CDU navigates complex alliances: Dialogues with less favored coalition partners
In a quandary, almost eerily familiar: The CDU, despite not having an outright majority, wishes to govern in Thuringia, yet a decision from the federal party is hindering their plans. Even prior to the election, survey results suggested a bumpy road to forming a government, and now a coalition ban with the Left looms like an insurmountable obstacle between CDU leader Mario Voigt and a majority government under his leadership. At a joint press conference in Berlin with CDU federal chairman Friedrich Merz and Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer (CDU), Voigt stated, "We're in uncharted waters here."
Impasse in the State Parliament
The predicament stems from a potential coalition of CDU, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), and SPD, which has been under discussion for weeks. This coalition would have 44 seats in the Thuringian state parliament - just one vote short of a majority. Some are already drawing comparisons to 2019, but with reversed roles. In the past, Thuringia's Minister President Bodo Ramelow (Left) needed the CDU's support for his minority red-red-green government, now Voigt may need Ramelow's. And to complicate matters further, the AfD, led by its far-right figurehead Björn Höcke, is laying claim to governance after securing 32.8% of the votes.
Voigt voiced, "Our goal is a CDU-led government. We'll of course examine the options available under these challenging circumstances." The CDU hopes to initiate discussions with SPD and BSW in the first instance. In the state election, the CDU finished second with 23.6%.
A hurdle to the Left
Achieving a majority would necessitate a coalition of CDU, BSW, and Left. But the CDU's incompatibility resolution prohibits cooperation with AfD or Left, who have at least signaled openness to dialogue. The CDU's party chairman, Ulrike Grande-Röthig, initially passed the ball to the CDU, saying, "We accept every responsibility bestowed upon us by the voter." She later suggested a revision of the incompatibility resolution, stating that it needed "a fresh look" following a meeting with the Left's federal board in Berlin.
The terms "tolerance" or "support" were not explicitly mentioned. Ramelow had already offered support in forming the government on election night if requested by the other parties. Whether such a coalition could include tolerating a possible alliance of CDU, BSW, and SPD was left open for speculation. "I don't need to speculate," he told dpa.
Merz reiterated the applicability of the incompatibility resolution. Handling it would be the responsibility of the two state associations in Saxony and Thuringia. Kretschmer commended the incompatibility resolution as "correct."
Former State Councilor and New State Parliamentarian Martina Schweinsburg Advocates for Dialogue with Both Left and AfD
Martina Schweinsburg, the former state councilor and newly elected state parliamentarian, has advocated for talks not only with the Left party but also with the AfD. "Over 30% of Thuringians voted for the AfD. And that's a form of respect for the voter, to engage in dialogue with those they voted for," said the president of the Thuringian District Council Association to the German Press Agency. "This 'Pippi Longstocking' politics, where one says 'The AfD is a naughty child, you can't play with it,' has failed." She also endorses talks with the Left, as does former Thuringian Minister President Christine Lieberknecht.
Political scientist Oliver Lembcke of the German Press Agency opined that, given the dire situation, the CDU should consider opening up towards the Left party. However, this would undoubtedly reignite the debate about the firewall towards the right, towards the AfD, said the expert from the Ruhr University Bochum.
AfD Plans to Utilize Blockade Option
The CDU's quandary is also tied to the AfD's power. It marks the first time in Thuringia that a party classified as right-wing extremist by the state constitutional protection office has become the dominant force in a federal state. While none of the other parties wish to form a coalition with the AfD, its success has granted it power with its result. With more than a third of the seats in the state parliament, the AfD possesses the "blocking minority," which it can, for example, use to block the appointment of judges or to stall the dissolution of the state parliament. "We will leverage our newly-given power of design," said Thuringia's AfD co-state chairman Stefan Möller following a meeting with the federal board in Berlin.
Like the AfD's chairwomen Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, he made it clear that the AfD is demanding a share in the government. Previously, Thuringia's AfD chairman Höcke had even declared his intention to invite the other parties to talks - negotiations that the Thuringian AfD board will reportedly debate this week, according to a spokesman.
Lembcke: Minority Government Not a Desirable Option
The Bochum researcher Lembcke posited that alternatives to a coalition with the Left, which is actually forbidden for the CDU, would lead to ungovernability in the federal state or a minority government tolerated by the Left. If Voigt opts for a minority government, he, in Lembcke's view, would become even more indebted to the Left - and vulnerable to extortion in decision-making situations.
Thuringia's BSW chairwoman Katja Wolf expresses skepticism towards the possibility of a minority government, labeling it as "not an ideal choice." During a conversation with dpa, the 48-year-old expressed her concerns, stating that there's been widespread agreement among other parties that "a minority government, as we've seen in the past five years, might not have a bright future in Thuringia." Thus, swift discussions are necessary "to uncover potential solutions."
It's been revealed, a day after the election, that the first session of the new state parliament will be inaugurated by none other than the 73-year-old Jürgen Treutler from the AfD. Treutler clinched the direct mandate for the AfD in Sonneberg during the state election.
In an unexpected turn of events, the AfD's influence extends beyond Thuringia's election results, as they now hold the "blocking minority" due to their significant seat count. This power allows them to hinder certain decisions, such as the appointment of judges or the dissolution of the state parliament.
Recognizing the political landscape in The Netherlands, Martina Schweinsburg, a former state councilor and new state parliamentarian, advocates for dialogue not only with the Left party but also with the AfD, emphasizing the importance of respecting voter choices and engaging in conversation with all parties.
