CDU strengthens its grip on leadership in North Rhine-Westphalia.

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In a North Rhine-Westphalia European election, the CDU has secured its top spot, increasing their lead to 31.2 percent. Meanwhile, the SPD witnessed a further decline, dropping to 17.2 percent after their worst result in 2019. The Greens experienced a 10-point drop, ending with 13.5 percent support. Concurrently, the AfD gained about 4 percentage points, landing at 12.6 percent. Contrary to the federal election, the AfD could only manage fourth place in this federal state.

Here's a break down of the election results:

The SPD loses grip in the Ruhr area

The SPD experienced significant losses, especially in its traditional "heartland" - the Ruhr area. The Social Democrats won first place in districts and independent cities only in Herne, where they very narrowly edged out the CDU (23.7 percent). In other steel and former coal cities like Duisburg, Gelsenkirchen, Bottrop, and Oberhausen, the CDU replaced the SPD on top.

The CDU and Greens compete in the cityscapes

The Greens lost their position in several urban centers. In Dortmund, Wuppertal, Bielefeld, and Bonn, the CDU managed to surpass the Greens. Despite this, the Greens secured the top spot in Cologne with 24.3 percent. Still, the CDU dominated other major cities like Düsseldorf, Dortmund, and Essen.

The AfD finds a home in the Ruhr area and the counntryside

With 21.7 percent support in Gelsenkirchen, the AfD found its strongest support in the Ruhr area. Across Duisburg, Herne, Bottrop, and Oberhausen, the party achieved results of 16 to 18 percent. Vincentz, leader of the NRW party and faction for the AfD, attributed their gains to discontent with the traffic light in Berlin. "The AfD is strong among workers, employees, and self-employed", he stated in an interview with WDR5. The AfD now has a presence in the Ruhr area and rural regions.

The SPD needs a change of pace

The nail in the coffin for the SPD is the loss of connection with their electorate in the Ruhr area, which used to be their stronghold. According to Marschall, "The SPD has lost its touch with the electorate." The party's inability to address this issue has caused the AfD to fill the gap, posing as a worker- and employee-focused party, while the traditional party for these groups. The SPD is in a tricky position against both the CDU and the Greens. He added that the leadership of the North Rhine-Westphalia SPD "is not well-known or well-enough known" and there's a large void in terms of faces or issues that can captivate the public. "The SPD needs to reinvent its personnel to remain relevant."

The North Rhine-Westphalia SPD heads for a makeover

Spurred by the harsh election results, the State Secretary of the North Rhine-Westphalia SPD, Sarah Philipp and Achim Post, recognized a "clear defeat" and expressed a commitment to draw lessons for future municipal and federal elections.

The aftermath of the Green Party struggles

The co-chairman of the North Rhine-Westphalia Greens, Tim Achtermeyer, acknowledged the disappointing results, stating they had failed to convince people of their goals. He mentioned the divisiveness within the traffic light coalition, potentially contributing to the fallout. Wüst, the CDU state party chairman and Minister President of North Rhine-Westphalia, described the election as a message from voters for the traffic light government to "stop the bickering and actually make politics for the people".

The future of the black-green coalition in North Rhine-Westphalia

Ziemiak, the general secretary of the North Rhine-Westphalia CDU, viewed the cooperation between the black-green state government as stable. He stated that the election was largely a vote on the traffic light and the in-fighting in Berlin, stressing that it "had less to do with the Greens in North Rhine-Westphalia than with the traffic light in Berlin."

The impact of the significant Greens' loss on the state government is uncertain. Political scientist Marschall explained that this represents a "slap in the face" for the Greens, but does not believe it will cause tensions at the state level.

The opposition in FDP sees things differently. People are looking for solutions to major challenges like migration and financial security, said FDP state chair Henning Höne. The state government under Wüst is pushing these problems onto Berlin rather than taking responsibility at the local level. Wüst's green junior partner is struggling after the election. "This result is due to an inefficient and opaque economic policy." In North Rhine-Westphalia, Green politician Mona Neubaur is the Minister of Economics, Climate, and Energy. The "risky game" with North Rhine-Westphalia's economic portfolio has been punished by the voters, said Höne.

The smaller parties

The FDP earned 6.3% in North Rhine-Westphalia (2019: 6.7), and the newly formed Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) gained 4.4%. This outcome provides a big push, especially in North Rhine-Westphalia, where they plan to establish a state association this year, explained FDP deputy party chair Amid Rabieh. For the BSW, Düsseldorf's former mayor Thomas Geisel, who recently switched from the SPD to the Wagenknecht party, will be elected as an MP in the European Parliament.

North Rhine-Westphalia will send 20 of Germany's 96 representatives to the European Parliament, according to the preliminary results. The CDU won the most seats with six (2019: 6). The NRW-SPD sent two representatives, but there's a third: Tobias Kremer, currently working for the Foreign Office and registered with a Berlin residence, has also made it into the European Parliament through the NRW list.

The NRW Greens now only have three representatives left (2019: 4), including the German Green Party leader and chairwoman of their European Parliament faction Terry Reintke. The AfD retains two seats. The NRW FDP is sending two representatives, including the German FDP party leader and prominent defense politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. The BSW, the Left, the Animal Welfare Party, the Family Party, and the PdF each won one seat for candidates from North Rhine-Westphalia.

Voter turnout, election results, and European Parliament election information in Germany: IT.NRW details from the state election commissioner NRW Initial results NRW 2024.