- The CDU is ahead of the AfD in the election poll in Saxony
The CDU leads in a new poll for the state election on September 1 in Saxony with 34 percent, leading the AfD by 4 percentage points. According to the ZDF Politbarometer of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) follows at 11 percent.
The current coalition partners of the Union – SPD and Greens – each get 6 percent and would therefore secure re-entry into the state parliament. The Left is at risk of failing the 5 percent hurdle with 4 percent; they would have to hope for two direct mandates to remain represented in parliament.
Based on these poll results, the CDU could continue its current coalition. A narrow majority would also be possible for a coalition between the CDU and BSW. A government consisting of the CDU and AfD would also be mathematically possible, although the Union has repeatedly ruled this out.
Kretschmer leads over Urban
The CDU also leads in the preference for a future Minister President: 64 percent of respondents would prefer incumbent Michael Kretschmer over AfD's top candidate Jörg Urban. Only 14 percent support Urban. According to the poll, one-third of respondents are still undecided about whom or if they will vote for. 60 percent would like to see the CDU lead the government again after the state election.
Only 17 percent want an AfD-led state government, and 10 percent would prefer the BSW in charge. 29 percent support the AfD's participation in the state government, while 60 percent think this would be bad. 36 percent think it would be good if the BSW were in the next government, but almost as many (35 percent) oppose this.
In the last state election in 2019, the CDU led with 32.1 percent, followed by the AfD (27.5 percent). The Left (10.4 percent) came in third, followed by the Greens (8.6 percent) and the SPD (7.7 percent). The FDP failed to enter the parliament for the second time in a row with 4.5 percent.
Polls are always subject to uncertainties, especially due to declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions. In general, polls only reflect the opinion climate at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
In the context of the ZDF Politbarometer, the Landtag election in Saxony on September 1 shows the CDU as the leading party with 34%, followed by the AfD at 30%. This potential coalition between the CDU and AfD, despite the Union's repeated rejection, is mathematically possible.
Furthermore, in the preferred Minister President, Michael Kretschmer of the CDU leads over Jörg Urban of the AfD with 64% and 14% respectively, indicating a strong support for the CDU's leadership in the Landtag after the election.
