- The apple harvest is almost completely gone in some places this year
Due to unfavorable weather and poor harvests, German consumers can expect rising prices for apples and processed apple products. The apple harvest in Germany this year is expected to be the lowest in seven years, according to the Federal Statistical Office. Other fruit varieties are also scarce this year.
Fruit growers expect a significantly below-average yield of 734,000 tons, according to the statistical office's estimate from July. This is around 22 percent less than last year and 26.3 percent below the average of the past ten years. The agricultural information company AMI estimates a slightly larger yield of around 800,000 tons.
Yield losses of up to 90 percent
Especially in the southeastern federal states such as Thuringia and Saxony, late frosts have caused blossoms to freeze, and hail has destroyed many fruit sets. Heavy rainfall and frequently damp, cool weather later in the year hindered the development of the fruit. Yield losses of up to 90 percent have been reported. In North Rhine-Westphalia, the apple harvest was halved compared to last year.
As a result, it is expected that three-quarters of the German apple harvest in 2024 will come from the large growing areas in Baden-Württemberg (Lake Constance) and Lower Saxony (Old Land). The two states account for around 60 percent of the total German apple growing area.
Better apple harvest abroad
The situation in neighboring countries looks a bit better: According to AMI's forecast, this year's apple production in Europe is only 11 percent lower than last year. The apple harvest began in August. Due to the estimate, the industry knows quite accurately how much fruit will be available on the market. Similarly, below-average harvests are expected for many other fruits such as cherries, pears, plums, and mirabelles.
Apples are the most popular fruit in Germany, according to AMI market expert Helwig Schwartau. While there will be sufficient supply for consumers, around 100,000 tons more will need to be imported than before. The average retail price is expected to increase by around ten percent and typically exceed the two-euro-per-kilo mark, Schwartau estimates. Stable quantities are expected for Mediterranean varieties such as Golden Delicious or Gala, but there will be a shortage of northern varieties such as Jonagored or Elstar.
"Water is the crucial factor"
"Due to climate change, we must prepare for lower fruit production in Europe in the coming years," says Schwartau. To compensate for fluctuations in heat and frost, fruit growers need irrigation systems. "Water is the crucial factor. But not all regions have the necessary supplies."
The meager yields also affect processed products such as fruit juices and smoothies. It is not yet possible to say how much apple juice prices will increase, the German Fruit Juice Industry Association (VdF) said. German consumers have already drunk less fruit juice and nectar in 2023 due to rising prices. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the price of apple juice is currently 33 percent higher than in 2020, and the price of orange juice is 57 percent higher.
Higher prices difficult to implement
Similar issues are facing apple wine producers around Frankfurt, who are already struggling with higher energy costs. "It's challenging to gather the apples needed for a year's production," says Ralf Walther of the Association of Hessian Apple Wine and Fruit Juice Producers. Fruit would then need to be sourced from other regions, "which means we have to dig deeper into our pockets." Meanwhile, consumers often aren't willing to pay more. "They want gold but are only willing to pay for lead," Walther adds.
Producers of apple sauce, apple butter, jam, fruit conserves, and fruit spreads are also affected. Companies would have to demand higher prices from retailers to avoid operating at a loss, according to Christoph Freitag, CEO of the Federal Association of the Fruit, Vegetable, and Potato Processing Industry (BOGK).
The extent of price increases for consumers remains uncertain. The Association of German Bakeries considers price increases of up to five percent possible for cakes and baked goods with fruit. However, this also depends on the price development of other ingredients like flour and sugar, says Tobias Schuhmacher, CEO of the association.
The BOGK describes the situation as "dramatic." In Poland, the main supplier of strawberries, only half the usual amount was harvested. Other countries face similar issues. Switching to other fruit varieties is not an option this year due to shortages. Other red berry fruits are also affected, with peaches and apricots resulting in smaller fruits and quality issues due to cooler weather.
With such limited raw materials, usual production quantities cannot be met. Due to short supply, available fruit is significantly more expensive, says Freitag. Additionally, production costs have increased - for example, energy, labor, and logistics.
Given the poor harvest in Germany, imported apples will likely make up a larger portion of the market, leading to higher prices for consumers. Additionally, the scarce apple supply will impact the production of apple juice and other processed apple products, potentially leading to further price increases.
