Ten times the size of Germany was in flames in 2023
The wildfires in Canada, the Amazon, and Greece burned an area of 3.9 million square kilometers in 2023. That's more than ten times the area of Germany. How the risk of fires develops in the future depends mainly on one factor, according to researchers.
Fires like the devastating wildfires of last year are likely to increase significantly in the coming decades - unless greenhouse gas emissions decrease. A report by an international research team led by Matthew Jones from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, based on a systematic analysis from March 2023 to February 2024, states that climate change has made such fires much more likely in Canada, the Amazon, and Greece. These fires, in turn, contribute to further global warming through their CO2 emissions.
Worldwide, an area of 3.9 million square kilometers burned - more than ten times the area of Germany (357,592 square kilometers). While this was slightly less than the long-term average of recent years - 4 million square kilometers - the carbon emissions were 16 percent higher compared to that average. The fires released about 8.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere during the study period, with almost a quarter of that - more than 2 billion tons - coming from the wildfires in Canada.
The largest fire within the EU
The northern part of South America, particularly Brazil, but also Venezuela, Peru, and Bolivia, experienced an unusually intense fire season. In Evros, northeastern Greece, the largest fire ever recorded in the territory of the European Union raged over about 900 square kilometers - the size of Berlin.
If the situation in the African savannas had not remained calm, the fire-related CO2 emissions would have reached a new record, according to the team, which also included German researchers, in the journal "Earth System Science Data".
"With a warmer climate, wildfires will become more frequent and intense," says lead author Jones. "Both society and the environment suffer from the consequences." More than 230,000 people had to leave their homes in Canada alone. Larger fires were also recorded in Chile and Hawaii, among other places.
The analysis shows that climate change has doubled the weather conditions for large fires - heat and drought - in Greece, at least tripled them in Canada, and increased them by more than a factor of 20 in the Amazon. "It is practically certain that the fires in 2023 in Canada and the Amazon were made larger by climate change," says co-author Chantelle Burton from the UK's national meteorological service, the Met Office.
How the fire risk will develop in different parts of the world over the course of the century depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, according to the report. In a medium to high emissions scenario, the risk of fires like last season's in Canada would increase by more than a factor of six by the year 2100, in the Amazon by almost three times, and in Greece by double. "As long as greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the risk of extreme wildfires will increase sharply," says co-author Douglas Kelley from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.
In the case of only a few emissions, the risk in Canada would only double, in the Amazon it would remain largely unchanged, and in Greece it would increase by about a third.
Other factors are also important
The team also notes that while climate is an important factor in fire risk, it is not the only one. Other factors include vegetation density, land use, and fire prevention measures. In western Amazonia, human activities such as deforestation and agricultural expansion made the forests more susceptible to drought. Another contributing factor last year was the unusually strong El Niño phenomenon, which occurs every three to eight years and contributes to heat and drought in South America.
The report also predicts favorable weather conditions for large fires in North and South America this year, particularly in western North America, such as in the U.S. state of California, and in the Pantanal, a large wetland area in southwestern Brazil.
- Despite the devastating wildfires, the importance of investing in education to raise awareness about climate change and its impact on wildfires cannot be overstated.
- In order to effectively combat the increase in wildfires due to climate change, there is a pressing need for continuous research and education in areas like fire science and environmental policy.
