- Survey shows difficulty in government formation in Thuringia
Less than three weeks before the state election, a new survey in Thuringia indicates a challenging government formation. In an Insa poll commissioned by Funke Medien Thuringia, the AfD remains in first place with 30 percent. The survey also shows a neck-and-neck race between the CDU and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) for second place, with the Christian Democrats at 21 percent and the BSW at 19 percent.
The Greens and FDP would not make it into parliament
The Left, led by Minister President Bodo Ramelow, gains slightly and is at 16 percent, while its former coalition partner, the SPD, is currently at six percent and approaching the critical five percent hurdle. In an Insa survey from June, the Left was at 14 percent. The third coalition partner of the current government under Ramelow, the Greens, would fail to enter the state parliament with three percent. The FDP, led by former interim Minister President Thomas Kemmerich, would also only reach three percent.
A Rot-Rot-Green coalition would therefore have no chance of a majority. Ramelow has led the coalition for ten years, most recently as a minority government. However, other constellations could also be tight.
Difficult majority finding
In recent polls, there was a theoretical majority for the CDU, BSW, and SPD. In the current Insa survey, the three together have 46 percent, which is also the threshold for a majority, as three percent each from the Greens and FDP, as well as two percent from other parties, would not translate into seats in parliament.
A coalition with the AfD, considered right-wing extremist in Thuringia, is ruled out by all other parties with a chance of entering the state parliament. The CDU also rejects a coalition with the Left.
The Left reaffirms its claim to be the "strongest democratic force"
Despite the gap to the BSW and the CDU, the Left reaffirmed its claim to be the "strongest democratic force". "Bodo Ramelow enjoys high trust across party lines in the democratic spectrum and has the experience of leading the state through difficult constellations and times, shaping it and connecting all democratic forces," explained Christian Schaft, co-chair of Thuringia's Left party.
Poll results are generally subject to uncertainties, with decreasing party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions making it difficult for polling institutes to weight the data. The institute gives a statistical error tolerance of 3.1 percentage points.
In general, polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. The state election in Thuringia will take place on September 1, simultaneously with the state election in Saxony.
The upcoming state election in September will be influenced by the results of the latest survey on government formation, which highlights a tight race between the CDU, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), and the AfD. Regarding potential coalition options, a Rot-Rot-Green coalition is unlikely due to the Greens and FDP not meeting the electoral threshold.
