- Survey indicates potential for AfD to secure top spot in parliamentary elections
Based on recent polls, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a decent chance of becoming the dominant party in both Thuringia and Saxony. In Saxony, the incumbent Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by Minister President Michael Kretschmer is currently at a slight lead over the AfD with 33% to 30%. However, the CDU's support has dipped by one percent compared to a previous survey. On the other hand, Infratest-dimap has the CDU at 31% in their most recent poll.
In Thuringia, the AfD, headed by right-wing figurehead Björn Höcke, is tied with 30%. New elections for the state parliament will take place in both states on September 1. It's important to note that the AfD is widely considered to be a right-wing extremist group by both state offices for the protection of the constitution in Thuringia and Saxony.
In Saxony, the new party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht would come in third place with 11%, followed by the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens with 7% and 6% respectively. The Left party would not make it into the Saxony state parliament with 4%.
In Thuringia, forming a government based on these poll results would be complex. The current coalition led by Left Minister President Bodo Ramelow would have no chance of a majority in parliament. The Left party would come in fourth place with 14%. In the 2019 state election, the Left was the strongest party in the state with 31%.
The BSW, polling at 17% and third place, could be a factor in the decline. The CDU is in second place with 23%. Since no other party wants to work with the AfD, CDU top candidate Mario Voigt could potentially claim the position of Minister President if the CDU finishes ahead of the BSW. However, a politically viable majority would only be possible in a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD. Such an alliance is considered controversial.
The SPD is dangerously close to the 5% hurdle in Thuringia with 6%. The Greens would not make it into the state parliament with 4%. The Free Democrats (FDP), with their top candidate and former short-term Minister President Thomas Kemmerich, would also not be in the new parliament and is listed under "other" in the survey.
It's important to note that poll results are always subject to uncertainties. Factors such as decreasing party loyalty and increasingly short-term election decisions make it difficult for polling institutes to weight the data they collect. The survey's statistical margin of error is about 3 percentage points for a value of 40%. In general, polls only reflect the opinion climate at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome.
In light of the upcoming Thuringia elections, analyzing the latest survey results reveals that the AfD, led by Björn Höcke, is tied with 30% support, which could potentially complicate the formation of a governing coalition. Moreover, the most recent survey in Saxony places the CDU at 31%, a slight decline from a previous poll, indicating that the race between the CDU and the AfD is tightening.
