- Study by Sam Altman: Basic income has little positive effect
Supporters of a universal basic income for financially struggling households envision many positive societal changes: more voluntary engagement, more time for family, more time for further education and pursuing better-paid jobs, and ultimately greater equality of opportunity.
Prominent advocates include Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey and OpenAI co-founder Sam Altman. Altman initiated a comprehensive study on the impacts of a guaranteed income on employment. However, the recently published results are not encouraging: study participants and their partners worked less, and overall annual income decreased. No positive effects on education were found.
Even proponents of basic income and the New Work bubble must admit that the reality check is disappointing.
Study participants use gained time for leisure
The study, according to the "New York Times," had a budget of $60 million. Altman founded the organization Open Research, contributing $14 million of his own wealth. Another $10 million came from OpenAI, and $15 million from Dorsey's global Covid relief fund.
Money was distributed to study participants, among others. 1000 randomly selected individuals with low incomes of less than $28,000 a year in the states of Illinois and Texas received a monthly, unconditional income of $1,000 for three years. A control group of 2,000 individuals received only $50 per month.
A key finding: compared to the control group, the total income of those with unconditional basic income decreased by about $1,500 a year, corresponding to a reduction in working hours of 1.3 to 1.4 hours per week. Partners of these individuals also reduced their working hours. This outcome is not surprising even to basic income advocates.
However, the study provides insights into how participants spent their additional time: they did not use it for further education or childcare, but mainly for leisure activities. They also spent a bit more time on finances and transportation, but not on sports or education. Only a few individuals used the extra opportunities to continue their education, for example. "If the participants invest more in education, we can expect them to achieve better employment outcomes in the long run," the authors note. However, they could not confirm this, nor an improvement in the quality of employment.
There was an increase in the duration of unemployment. On average, those with basic income were unemployed for 1.1 months longer than those in the control group. The results on job search suggest that those with basic income search for jobs more actively but are more selective in their job choices.
Advocates call for more honesty
Despite the positive coverage of the study in US media, many experts agree that the results are rather negative. "We need more intellectual honesty here," writes Rutger Bregman on the X platform. He advocates for basic income and argues, "It's not about working less to do more. It's about what works in the fight against poverty, inequality, and so on."
Sam Altman had expressed years ago that without some form of guaranteed income, there can't be real equality of opportunity. Even before his big break as a tech investor, he was interested in universal basic income. He recently shared the study results on X, praising the team but without providing any substantive interpretation.
Notably, the study's participants who received funding showed stronger entrepreneurial intentions, but this did not translate to actual entrepreneurial activity. The study's authors therefore conclude that "very few people inherently have the desire to become entrepreneurs."
The results of the comprehensive study initiated by Sam Altman in Silicon Valley indicate that participants used their additional time primarily for leisure activities instead of further education or improving their employment prospects. Furthermore, the tech mogul, known for his advocacy of universal basic income, recently shared the study's findings on his platform X without offering a detailed interpretation.
