- Southern celebrate CSU victory - despite a hook
Markus Söder has been this pleased for a long time. "This is a clear victory for the CSU and Bavaria - and a slap in the face for the Traffic Light coalition," he rejoices over the federal constitutional court's ruling on electoral law. While there's a catch that could still be painful for some CSU Bundestag candidates, the key point is: the CSU no longer needs to worry about being kicked out of the Bundestag due to the new electoral law pushed through by the Traffic Light coalition.
Previously, the so-called basic mandate clause ensured the CSU's existence in the Bundestag. According to this clause, parties also entered the parliament with the strength of their second vote results if they were below the five percent hurdle but won at least three direct mandates. And the CSU always won the most constituencies in Bavaria directly. However, the Traffic Light coalition abolished this clause, which would have endangered the Christian social future in Berlin if the CSU's vote had dropped further (in 2021, the CSU received 5.2 percent nationwide).
At one point, there were anxious considerations within the CSU about a Plan B - a joint list with the CDU, but running nationwide? Nothing was pursued further - also because the Union and the CSU gained in polls and it became clear that the five percent hurdle would not be a threat in the next election.
"Traffic Light coalition's election manipulation exposed"
Now, however, Karlsruhe has struck down this part of the electoral reform. "The Traffic Light coalition's election manipulation has been exposed and rejected by the court," says Söder. This ensures, in all likelihood, that the CSU will be represented in the next Bundestag.
Moreover, the court sets clear guidelines on how a threshold clause (i.e., the five percent hurdle) could be modified and designed in a constitutional manner. The legislator may not exceed what is necessary to ensure the functionality of the Bundestag. And it is not necessary, in the court's view, to ignore parties like the CSU in seat allocation if they form a joint faction with the members of another party and together achieve over five percent. Which is the case with the CDU and CSU.
The court thus places the CSU on a somewhat different level than other parties, but also emphasizes that the legislator is not obliged to create this possibility of jointly considering two closely cooperating parties. "Rather, he can modify the threshold clause in another way," the ruling states.
Ruling with a catch
However, the ruling is not entirely cause for celebration for the CSU, as there is a small but significant catch. Söder also speaks of a fly in the ointment: because Karlsruhe has approved another central part of the new electoral law. Henceforth, the number of seats in the Bundestag will be determined solely by a party's second vote result, even if it has won more direct mandates. Then, the winning candidates with the worst first vote results will be at a disadvantage.
This is likely to affect individual CSU candidates, for example in cities like Munich. Moreover, the court counters a classic CSU argument in its reasoning: "It is misguided to view constituency representatives as delegates of their constituency," the ruling states.
Innenminister Joachim Herrmann (CSU) says in Karlsruhe that a construction that subsequently declares elected direct candidates as not elected is hardly understandable to citizens. "But we will have to take note of it."
Söder Sets Coalition Condition
For now, at least. Söder promptly announces that a government led by the Union would seek to reverse the new allocation rule. "It's clear that if voters put us in the next government, we will immediately change this traffic light law. That's a coalition condition for the CSU in the next federal government," he emphasizes.
Meanwhile, the Free Voters, who have long dreamed of entering the Bundestag, may be drawing some hope. While the five-percent hurdle remains far from current poll numbers, some Free Voters are speculating that three constituency victories could be enough nationwide - and like the CSU, they had hoped for the reinstatement of the basic mandate clause.
Accordingly, Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger positively comments on the electoral law ruling: "I consider it reasonable that a party with three direct mandates can still enter the Bundestag even if it does not receive five percent of the votes."
But wouldn't frontman Aiwanger have to run as a constituency candidate himself in the end? But what would Söder say to his coalition partner then? One thing is clear already: The next federal election campaign in Bavaria is unlikely to be pleasant for anyone.
The CSU is expected to be represented in the next Bundestag due to the federal constitutional court's ruling, as stated by Markus Söder, acknowledging that the court's decision "exposed and rejected" the Traffic Light coalition's election manipulation.
Despite the victory, there is a catch in the ruling that could affect individual CSU candidates, such as those in cities like Munich, as the number of seats in the Bundestag will be determined solely by a party's second vote result, even if it has won more direct mandates.
