South Africa's elections saw a surprising return of Jacob Zuma. Will he triumph over Ramaphosa in the end?
On a Wednesday event, the ANC's national spokesperson emphasized that a coalition government would benefit unity and stability and suggested a national harmony government of some sort.
"The ANC has decided that we must all behave in the interest of our nation and its people, and labor on a collective agreement on the kind of government most suitable to advance South Africa at this specific moment in history," Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri said at a media conference.
Yet, some of the same parties that once sought the ANC's downfall will now need to contribute to governing South Africa.
For lengthy, the ANC was capable of ruling alone, but public backing for the party plummeted to roughly 40% in last Wednesday's elections, down from 57% in 2019.
Experts and polls had predicted declines for the ANC, but a crucial aspect in the party's stunning decline was former President Jacob Zuma and his newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party.
Zuma's plot for vengeance
Zuma - an outspoken critic of current ANC head and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa - was removed as president in 2018 and has been seeking political retribution ever since.
His MK party, named after the ANC's former armed wing, appears to have achieved that goal - crafted just five months ago, it presently stands as the third-largest party in South Africa, securing almost 15% of the votes.
Zuma framed MK as "a party supposed to restore the ANC to its previous excellence." Political analyst Tessa Dooms, programs director at the Rivonia Circle non-profit organization/political think tank in Johannesburg, commented about this: "What we've seen with the MK party is the utilization of a ballot as a signal to the ANC of the amount of discontent, not simply of the state as a whole but within its ranks who've supported it for the past 30 years."
Despite being prohibited from running for parliament by the Constitutional Court due to a past contempt of court violation, the 82-year-old's image remained on the ballot paper.
Zuma has been surrounded by controversy and court cases. He has faced hundreds of corruption, fraud, and racketeering charges over the years. He's constantly argued not guilty and was known as the "Teflon President" because few politicians could have endured the scandals he survived.
Ramaphosa took Zuma's place as President when Zuma was forced to resign. Afterwards, reports of "state capture" - or rampant corruption - stunned the country in an anti-corruption inquiry. Most of the attention centered on Zuma's connections to the influential and wealthy Gupta brothers.
Because of the ANC's low popularity and Ramaphosa's political status being questionable, Zuma's success might have been the final laugh. Still, it's too soon to say.
Due to the bad election performance, South Africa's political landscape has been drastically transformed, leaving the ANC with the daunting duty of creating a coalition government.
In numerous nations, coalition talks can take months, but South Africa's constitution awards rival parties merely 14 days to forge a coalition after the preliminary election results are finalized.
The result of these conversations will likely impact Ramaphosa's role as president, as his position probably depends on the outcome of these discussions.
Ramaphosa's ANC allies are standing firm. On a Sunday occasion, ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula cautioned potential coalition partners that his resignation "is not going to occur."
"I believe the ANC possesses many factors to consider in terms of how it structures a government - both the stability of the country as a whole but also to ensure a government which still upholds the ANC-claimed values," Dooms informed CNN.
The prospective coalition partners display starkly various ideologies and policy priorities.
A helpful, convenient relationship
One candidate is the official opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), a broadly centrist and pro-business party that has long harshly criticized the ANC.
Led by John Steenhuisen, it's perceived as a party for White South Africans. Steenhuisen hasn't completely ruled out merging with the ANC.
A DA-ANC coalition, irrespective of how it takes shape, would likely keep Ramaphosa in his position, according to analysts.
"The only way Ramaphosa stays is via a DA-ANC coalition. Otherwise, the MK and EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) have expressly stated that they will demand his resignation first," said TK Pooe, a senior lecturer at Wits School of Governance.
If the ANC paired with the DA, which received 21.8% of the votes, their combined strength would comprise more than 60%, an outright majority. However, this connection could require both parties to make major compromises.
Whilst in power, the ANC's flagship policy for fostering economic inclusivity and racial equality in post-apartheid South Africa has been its Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment policy, known as triple-BEE or merely BEE.
The Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy has received criticism from some individuals as it fails to serve as a wide-reaching or empowering initiative. The Democratic Alliance (DA) has stated their intention to replace BEE with an "Economic Justice Policy" that specifically targets the impoverished black majority for reparations, rather than catering to a smaller, connected group.
Furthermore, the DA opposes the ANC's National Health Insurance Act (NHI), which was signed into law shortly before the election and aims to provide universal healthcare coverage for all while gradually limiting the function of private health insurance companies.
Both political parties maintain the importance of South Africa's constitution, and they have each expressed a dedication to combatting corruption. Yet, the DA is presently pursuing corruption charges against the ANC's deputy president, Paul Mashatile.
To counter internal criticism, the ANC-DA alliance may potentially be expanded to incorporate smaller political parties. The ANC could also form a minority government with popular opposition leaders, such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), who would provide support on key votes in return for policy concessions.
A challenging dilemma
Should the ANC decide to embrace coalition discussions with former combatants (MK), then Zuma might try to remove Ramaphosa, fueling his desire for revenge.
Nevertheless, if the ANC's president retains control of the party, a potential MK coalition is improbable.
The MK party's manifesto calls for alterations to the current constitution, bestowing additional powers to traditional leaders.
Zuma's campaign heavily emphasized Zulu nationalism and successfully attracted his Zulu base constituency. Nonetheless, this strategy may worsen existing ethnic and tribal discord in South Africa.
The ANC's principles, rooted in non-racial and non-tribal governance, contrast with the MK's approach. Furthermore, it is unclear if MK truly desires to govern. Despite performing admirably at the polls, the party has demanded a re-run, threatened legal action, and suggested boycotting the first seating of Parliament, yet they have failed to produce any evidence of irregularities.
Another potential partner for the ANC in a coalition is the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema. This EFF's platform encompasses land expropriation without compensation and nationwide control of resources, including the nationalization of the Reserve Bank.
Malema has suggested providing his party's support to the ANC if his deputy, Floyd Shivambu, is appointed as Minister of Finance. This would allow the EFF to influence fiscal policy.
Concerns from South Africa's business community and middle class centralize around the potential impacts of an EFF-ANC coalition on investor confidence and the national economy. The Democratic Alliance characterizes this as the "doomsday" option due to its possible consequences for investment and commerce.
The EFF garnered nearly 10% of the votes, therefore, a coalition with the ANC would necessitate the inclusion of at least another party for a healthy majority. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) could potentially fulfill this position, having gained almost 4% of the votes.
A "government of national unity" (GNU) could also be considered, improving upon the post-apartheid era when South Africa was led by Mandela as president, FW de Klerk and Thabo Mbeki as deputy presidents, between April 1994 and February 1997.
With less than two weeks remaining to finalize coalition negotiations, the future of South Africa's political system stays unpredictable; the ANC must tread carefully to establish a stable government and address issues that have decimated their popularity, while Ramaphosa's leadership risks being undermined by Zuma's return to prominence.
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In the context of South Africa's political landscape, African nations have shown support for Ramaphosa in his attempts to govern effectively, recognizing the challenges he faces with Zuma's return and the ANC's declining popularity.
Furthermore, the world at large is closely watching South Africa's election results and subsequent coalition negotiations, as the outcome could significantly impact the continent and the global political climate.
