September commences with unprecedented heat levels.
As autumn creeps in subtly, supermarkets start stocking up on gingerbread and pumpkin-spiced treats, yet meteorologists have already declared autumn's arrival. However, the arrival of autumn is lacking in most places, with temperatures remaining summery and even a heatwave sweeping over the eastern parts of Germany.
Climate experts predict that Wednesday will see temperatures soar up to 35 degrees in the east, warning of potential heatstroke due to temperatures reaching 10 degrees above the average. The heat wave is expected to persist through Thursday and Friday, with temperatures expected to touch 32 and 30 degrees respectively.
These temperatures are unusual for this time of year and even threaten to break records. The German record of 36.5 degrees, set at the Jena Observatory in 1911, may not be broken, but individual station records could potentially be shattered, placing us in the highest September temperatures recorded in the past 70 years.
Bracing for extreme summers
Given the climate crisis, such extreme weather events are becoming increasingly likely. "We should brace ourselves for the increased occurrence of dry and hot periods," says geographer Elizaveta Felsche from Ludwig-Maximilians-University to mdr. "Whether it will always be late summer, we can't say for certain."
In a recent study, Felsche and her team explored the likelihood of extreme European heat events related to climate model projections. The findings suggest that if the world warms by three degrees, every second or third summer could replicate the extreme year of 2003. In other words, Germany's summers will start feeling like they currently do in southern France.
Previous studies have also pointed to similarly alarming conclusions. Last year, climate researchers from Potsdam and Karlsruhe reported that an extreme summer like 2018 in Europe would occur almost every year in a two-degree warmer world. Furthermore, researchers from Jena predicted that dry and hot summers would become more frequent in the coming decades.
Summer of 2024 scorching in Germany
Summers have already become too hot, and this year is no exception. The average temperature was 2.2 degrees higher than the internationally recognized reference period of 1961 to 1990, and 0.9 degrees higher than the current and warmer comparison period of 1991 to 2020. Despite not setting a new record, summer 2024 still marked the 28th consecutive warm summer.
The southern and eastern regions experienced the most intense summer heat, with the most hot days recorded in the lowlands and river valleys of southern Germany and Saxony. On average, Germany experienced 712 hours of sunlight, a 15% increase compared to the 614-hour average of the 1961-1990 period. Some areas of Saxony and southern Brandenburg even experienced over 800 hours of sunshine, while the Alps saw less than 600 hours.
Rainfall, overall, was average, with 240 liters per square meter, matching both reference periods. However, these average figures mask significant regional disparities, with over 600 liters measured in the alpine regions, while parts of the northeast remained dry with less than 150 liters.
The German weather service has issued a warning of potential heatstroke due to the ongoing heatwave, with temperatures predicted to reach 35 degrees on Wednesday. Despite meteorologists declaring the arrival of autumn, the German weather service continues to issue warnings for extreme summer temperatures.
