- Rough tone in election campaign: poll makes majority shake
Two and a half weeks before the state election in Thuringia**, the tone between the parties is becoming harsher, with a new poll threatening to make the formation of a government difficult once again. Minister President and Left Party top candidate Bodo Ramelow called the alliance with Sahra Wagenknecht a "mind-boggling phantom party" in an interview with the Berlin "Tagesspiegel". Wagenknecht, he said, is "everywhere talking about a political deal: The BSW in Saxony should re-elect Michael Kretschmer (CDU) as Minister President, and in return, the CDU should make Frau Wolf the Thuringian Minister President," Ramelow complained. "Wagenknecht is thus already distributing posts before the election." He read this "with astonishment".
Neck and Neck Race
According to a new Insa poll, there could be a neck and neck race for second place between the BSW and the CDU - the Christian Democrats are at 21 percent, the BSW at 19 percent. Ramelow's Left Party has improved by two percentage points compared to an Insa survey in June, to now 16 percent. The AfD remains in first place with 30 percent.
For Ramelow's current coalition partners, it looks like a fight for survival: The Greens would, according to the survey, not make it into the Thuringian state parliament with 3 percent. The SPD, with its state chairman and Interior Minister Georg Maier, is at only six percent - dangerously close to the five percent hurdle. Insa gives a maximum margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Polls are generally subject to uncertainties. Among other things, decreasing party loyalty and ever more short-term election decisions make it difficult for polling institutes to weigh the data collected. The FDP would also not be represented in parliament with three percent.
Ramelow against a minority government
The political situation in Thuringia has been extremely complex for years. Ramelow has been leading a red-red-green minority government without his own majority in parliament for about four and a half years. In an interview with the "Tagesspiegel", the 68-year-old reaffirmed: "I cannot recommend this country a minority government. I mean that seriously."
But in the end, it could once again result in such a construct. In recent polls, there was a mathematical majority for CDU, BSW, and SPD. In the current Insa poll, however, the three together only reach 46 percent, which is also the threshold for a majority, as three percent each of the Greens and FDP, as well as two percent of other parties, would not translate into seats in parliament.
A coalition with the AfD, which is considered right-wing extremist in Thuringia, is ruled out by all other parties with chances of entering the state parliament. The CDU also rejects a coalition with the Left - much to Ramelow's displeasure. The 68-year-old said in the RTL/ntv show "Early Start" that this "exclusion mentality" was a catastrophe. He fights for a majority government. Ramelow warned against the AfD and the normalization of fascism, as he put it.
Wagenknecht attacks Voigt
Thuringia's BSW top candidate Katja Wolf had recently called for a new approach to the AfD in an interview with "Welt" and criticized that the firewall had made the AfD stronger. She called for more pragmatism, for example in dealing with AfD proposals. "If one should find oneself in a coalition, then different rules apply to proposals. That's logical," she later told dpa.
Thuringia's CDU General Secretary Christian Herrgott stated that the BSW's stance shows it doesn't know where it's heading. "While Wagenknecht from the Saarland tries to dictate terms for Thuringia, the BSW is floating between extending the Red-Red-Green coalition and cozying up to Höcke's AfD."
It's also uncertain if the CDU would be open to a coalition with the BSW if it were overtaken by Wagenknecht's party. Wolf could then claim the position of Minister President. She expressed confidence that a solution would be found even then, saying, "I sense a great desire among all to avoid a minority government, even within the CDU." In her view, all "democratic parties" are aware of their "special responsibility."
Wagenknecht accused Thuringia's CDU top candidate Mario Voigt of pitting federal and state politics against each other. She told the "Thuringer Allgemeine" that if Wolf became Minister President, it would "trigger an earthquake in Berlin and change federal politics."
Voigt, she said, "doesn't understand the extent to which the wrong foreign policy of the traffic light coalition and Union, which could lead our country into a nuclear war, also scares people in Thuringia."
The new poll suggests a close race between the CDU and BSW, with Minister President Ramelow's Left Party also showing improvement. However, it mentions Katja Wolf from the BSW proposing a new approach towards the AfD, which has been critically received by the CDU.
Despite Wagenknecht's proposed deal to make Frau Wolf the Thuringian Minister President in exchange for supporting the CDU's candidate in Saxony, a coalition between the CDU and the Left Party remains unlikely due to political differences.
