Report sees a total of eight important earth systems at risk of tipping over
One of the main authors of the report, PIK researcher Sina Loriani, explained that the crossing of tipping systems could "trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt changes". These could "irreversibly determine the fate of significant parts of our Earth system for the next hundreds or thousands of years".
According to PIK, more than 200 researchers were involved in the work led by the British University of Exeter. It is the "most comprehensive overview of tipping points in the Earth system to date", explained PIK researcher Loriani.
Climate researchers speak of tipping points when certain climate phenomena cross thresholds beyond which they can no longer be reversed. The authors of the report count the ice sheet on Greenland and the subpolar gyre circulation in the north of the Atlantic Ocean among the tipping systems already under threat. The systems that may be additionally threatened from the 2030s onwards include northern forests, mangroves and seagrass meadows.
The analysis shows that current climate change could cause "fundamental changes in key elements of the Earth system", explained PIK researcher Jonathan Donges. Due to their impact on human societies, these could in turn lead to "violent conflicts or the collapse of political institutions".
However, according to the PIK, the authors of the report also see opportunities for so-called "positive tipping points", which could be crucial in "stabilizing the planet and avoiding negative impacts of Earth system tipping points on societies". Such "non-linear changes" can already be observed today in the markets for renewable energies and electric vehicles. In addition, political decisions could trigger these "abrupt" positive social and technological changes.
The report on the tipping points is to be presented on Wednesday morning (local time) at the ongoing COP28 world climate conference in Dubai.
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This research report, led by the University of Exeter, identifies a total of eight earth systems at risk of tipping over, as highlighted by PIK researcher Sina Loriani. The report warns that crossing these tipping points could trigger irreversible changes in our Earth system for centuries.PIK, in collaboration with over 200 researchers, calls this the most comprehensive study on tipping points in the Earth system to date.
Among the already threatened tipping systems, the report mentions the ice sheet on Greenland and the subpolar gyre circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Forthcoming threats from the 2030s include northern forests, mangroves, and seagrass meadows.
This research suggests that current climate change could lead to critical changes in Earth's key elements, potentially ending in severe societal impacts such as conflict or political instability.
However, the report also identifies opportunities for 'positive tipping points,' which could help mitigate negative planetary impacts and promote societal resilience. Examples include the growing markets for renewable energies and electric vehicles, which demonstrate non-linear changes with potential for abrupt societal and technological improvements.
Researchers believe that these positive tipping points could also be influenced by strategic political decisions, further emphasizing the importance of urgent climate action.
The resultant report will be presented at the ongoing COP28 world climate conference in Dubai on Wednesday morning.
Source: www.stern.de
