Putin's Timely Visit to North Korea Carries Significant Implications
Unlike the multitude of high-profile gatherings in recent weeks, this meeting of autocrats in Pyongyang is aimed to bolster Moscow, not Kyiv.
In the past few weeks, Ukraine's allies, led by the US and other democratic powers, have convened numerous discussions, offering not just symbolic endorsement but also tangible new aid to the beleaguered Ukrainians.
So, it's no wonder that Putin is attempting to break free from his diplomatic confinement and reignite his arms supply line, which he last visited in nearly a quarter century's absence.
The intensity of this diplomatic push, along with renewed attempts to secure substantial outcomes beyond hollow promises, is no accident. A distant event unfolding thousands of miles away is fueling the mounting urgency.
On both sides of the conflict, world leaders are vigilantly watching the clock. With each meeting, summit, historical celebration, the date approaches ever closer to what is arguably the most significant event of 2024 – the US presidential election, where one of the candidates has expressed disapproval of the extent of Washington's support for Ukraine and plans to reduce it.
That, of course, is former President Donald Trump. The expectation that he would withdraw support for Kyiv is a key factor behind three separate summit meetings in as many weeks, where Kyiv's allies have made strides to fortify Ukraine's defenses against Trump's potential withdrawal of aid.
The outcome of the US election will have far-reaching consequences for US foreign policy and potentially for the fate of Ukraine, now in its third year of resisting an attempt by Putin's Russia to subjugate it through force.
Allies have valid reasons to believe Putin aims to outlast Western support. Putin, along with his allies in Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea, who wish to see an end to a global order led by the US and democratic powers, needs to stockpile enough weaponry to continue pushing into Ukraine for the coming months.
Part of his plan is likely to maintain pressure until public opinion in Western countries wanes in support of Kyiv, and their right-wing leaders – perhaps Trump in the White House and other like-minded ones in Europe – withdraw their backing.
This line of thought was likely behind last week's port call in Cuba by a Russian nuclear-powered submarine, and a "peace" proposal by Putin, both aimed at persuading Western audiences that the risks are too high and it's time to appease Putin to some extent.
Under Putin's proposal, he wouldn't obtain all of Ukraine; instead, he suggests he'd be content with keeping a few large chunks of the country, along with a variety of provisions that weaken Kyiv.
Ukraine's allies viewed the proposal as manipulative. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called it "a recipe for future wars of aggression." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called it a "dictatorial peace" offer. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte called it "absolutely crazy" and a sign that Putin is "flustered."
Flustered or not, Putin faces new reasons to worry after the steadfast, emotional support Ukraine's allies have shown toward Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky and, more importantly, the substantial actions they've taken to ensure their support lasts beyond the November election.
From the heights of France's Normandy, where Western allies gathered earlier this month to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion against the Nazis, to the G7 summit in Italy's Puglia region, to the Peace Summit in Switzerland this past weekend, numerous countries have declared their support for Ukraine, equating Russia to the despised aggressors of past wars. Many have backed their impassioned words with significant steps of assistance.
To be clear, Russia has secured significant backing from its authoritarian allies. South Korean intelligence estimates that North Korea has supplied up to 5 million artillery rounds, along with ballistic missiles and other ammunition. This undoubtedly helped Moscow kill countless Ukrainians and cripple their energy infrastructure. Iran has provided kamikaze drones, and China is reportedly providing the components required to transform Russia into a wartime economy (which they all deny.)
However, the West has also escalated its efforts. The six-month delay in approving the Biden administration's $61 billion aid package, obstructed by Trump loyalists in Congress, gave Russia an advantage. But the weapons are now being delivered, helping slow Russia's advance in some areas.
In Normandy, Western leaders compared the war against Hitler to Ukraine's struggle, with Russia playing the role of WWII Germany – an analogy that undermines Putin's false claim about Ukrainian Nazism and bolsters the rationale for supporting Ukraine's victory.
In Puglia, the G7 agreed to a massive $50 billion loan to Ukraine, funded with the earnings from Russia's frozen assets. President Joe Biden called it a "vital step forward in providing sustainable support for Ukraine in winning this war." Notice the word "sustainable" – that's the Trump-proofing part, or even the Republican-Congress-proofing element, in case GOP hardliners again attempt to reverse US policy.
Biden also signed a 10-year security agreement with Zelensky. The timeline outlasts even a possible second Biden term. "Our goal,"said Biden, is to strengthen Kyiv, "for the long term." There it is again, the allusion to the clock.
During the peace conference organized by Zelensky in Switzerland, over a hundred nations attended, with over eighty signing a statement reinforcing Ukraine's claim to maintain its entire territory - a clear rejection of Putin's so-called "peace" proposal.
In case the United States decides to shift its stance, NATO's defense chiefs have consented to assume more responsibilities from the U.S. in aiding Ukraine.
The hustle and bustle of events doesn't seem to be subsiding anytime soon. The following month, NATO is scheduled to host its summit in Washington, where we can anticipate further strong military support for Ukraine.
On the other hand, Putin is planning to jet off to Vietnam, a one-party governed state, this week. While Vietnam isn't known as a military heavyweight, it's at least one nation that isn't siding with Ukraine.
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In the face of conflicting opinions on US foreign policy towards Ukraine, leaders from various nations have publicly declared their support for Ukraine, equating Russia to past aggressors and backing their words with significant assistance. With the US presidential election approaching, some analysts believe Putin is attempting to sway public opinion by proposing a "peace" plan, which has been widely criticized as manipulative and dictatorial.
