Predictions: Traffic light coalition faces defeats in European elections - victories for CDU/CSU and AfD
Based on calculations from ARD and ZDF, the Union tops the polls with an estimated 29.6 to 30.0% (EU election 2019: 28.9%). The AfD's performance declines to 16.1 to 16.4%, significantly lower than the results they had achieved in surveys months prior (2019: 11.0%).
SPD, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, improves on their poor showing in the EU election 2019 and is pegged at 14.0% (2019: 15.8%). The Greens suffer the most extreme losses and secure a position at 12.0 to 12.4% (2019: 20.5%). The FDP incurs only minor decreases and makes the cut with 4.9 to 5.0% (2019: 5.4%).
Sahra Wagenknecht, a former Left Party politician, achieves 5.7 to 5.9% with her newly formed party BSW, surpassing the Left Party and its estimated 2.8 to 2.9% (on par with the pro-European small party Volt).
Popular parties like the Free Voters and splinter groups The Party, the Animal Welfare Party, the Family Party, and the ODP will likely secure seats, thanks to there being no threshold during the election, as per ZDF's estimates.
The voter turnout surged significantly compared to the EU election 2019 - according to ZDF, it reached approximately 65%. This marks a significant uptick from five years ago, when it was at 61.4%.
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- Despite the projected victories for the CDU/CSU and losses for SPD in the European elections, the Traffic light coalition, led by Olaf Scholz, is predicted to improve their performance compared to 2019.
- The AfD, a prominent German party, is expected to see a significant decrease in support, according to extrapolations from ARD and ZDF, in contrast to their strong showing in the 2019 European elections.
- The SPD's European election projections indicate a decline compared to 2019, yet they still manage to surpass their previous performance, according to the estimates from ARD and ZDF.
- In contrast to the SPD, the Greens are projected to suffer substantial losses in the European elections, securing a lower position than in 2019, according to the extrapolations from ARD and ZDF.
- The FDP, a German union party, is projected to incur only minor decreases in support compared to the 2019 European elections, as per the calculations from ARD and ZDF.
- The upcoming European elections in Germany will likely see the victory of the CDU/CSU and losses for some parties like SPD, but smaller parties like the Free Voters and The Party are expected to secure seats due to the absence of a threshold, as per ZDF's estimates.
- The voter turnout in the upcoming European elections is expected to surge significantly, as per ZDF's estimates, reaching approximately 65%, marking a substantial increase compared to five years ago, when it was at 61.4%.
- Among the popular parties, Sahra Wagenknecht's newly formed party BSW is projected to outperform the Left Party, according to calculations from ARD and ZDF, in the upcoming European elections.
