Potential inflation may lead to Biden losing his position.
In the US, inflation has been a major issue since President Joe Biden took office, with prices surging and refusing to budge. Many citizens hold the current president responsible for this situation, which may increase the likelihood of former president Donald Trump returning to the White House. Although Trump was convicted in the process of covering up hush money payments to a porn star, for numerous Americans, the more pressing concern is rising inflation.
Biden faces a formidable challenge: inflation. While the inflation rate has now moved away from the record highs observed in summer 2022, the steep price increases during his presidency could still cost him the upcoming election and pave the way for Trump's return.
Inflation affects everyone, and it's a serious issue for 62% of Americans, as indicated by Pew Research Center. According to these statistics, Biden trails behind Trump in the polls for the upcoming Republican nomination. When Trump completed his four-year term, prices had risen by 7.8% compared to the start of his presidency. Currently, prices have already increased by 21.6% under Biden, which will continue to climb despite the fact that growth has slowed considerably.
While presidents may have some impact on inflation, what's most important is the impact on daily life costs. Inflation skyrocketed under Biden, with the Federal Reserve stepping in and raising interest rates to bring it under control. However, it has proven more persistent than anticipated. In April 2023, the rate hovered at 3.4%, exceeding the Fed's target of 2%.
The majority of economists attribute the inflation under both Biden and Trump to international events, particularly the coronavirus pandemic and its repercussions. Trump inherited an ailing economy from predecessor Barack Obama, which was further devastated by the pandemic. Biden dealt with the fallout.
When Trump first assumed office in January 2017, inflation was at 2.5%. The economic crisis pushed it almost to zero in 2020. Subsequently, factors like supply shortages and surging oil prices led to elevated inflation, exacerbated by a strong economic recovery following the pandemic.
Inflation reached 9.1% in June 2022, which was unheard of in recent history. The Federal Reserve managed to curtail it with aggressive interest rate hikes but has ultimately grappled with its tenacious nature. Despite the progress, the rate remained at 3.4%, far higher than the Fed's target.
Averaging 5% per year, inflation under Biden's presidency exceeded Trump's term, seeing an increase of just 1.9% annually. For context, since the inception of Jimmy Carter's presidency in 1977, the average yearly inflation has been 3.6%. During Carter's tenure, high inflation was a significant factor in his loss to Ronald Reagan in 1980.
The Swing State Project suggests that more than 50% of US voters view rising living costs as the prime indicator of the country's economic state. Likewise, they believe Biden can handle inflation. It makes sense that the public generally sees the economy as doing better under Trump than under Biden. And this, despite the current era being the best time since the 1960s to find a job in the US. The unemployment rate under Biden averaged only 4.1%, the lowest in recent history, eclipsed only by Lyndon Johnson at the end of the 1960s.
When Trump entered office, the unemployment rate was 4.7%, skyrocketing to 14.8% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, the rate fell to 6.4% by the time he left the White House. This trend continued under Biden, with the economy experiencing robust growth – notably from consumers spending their pandemic savings and stimulus packages from the new administration.
Unfortunately, many Americans are unaware of these economic improvements. A survey conducted by the "Guardian" revealed that over eight in ten people think the US economy is stagnating under Biden – despite actual GDP growth. Almost half believe the S&P 500 stock index has tanked this year, although it soared by more than 10%. And nearly half think the unemployment rate has reached a 50-year high. This is unfortunate news for Biden and cheerful news for his competitor, Trump.
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Despite Biden's efforts to control inflation, the persistent economic issue could potentially lead him to lose the US presidential election in 2024. In contrast, Trump's popularity hasn't waned among many voters, with polls indicating that he trails Biden by a narrow margin for the upcoming Republican nomination.
If inflation continues to be a key concern for voters, Trump may capitalize on the situation and position himself as the candidate capable of addressing the economic struggles faced by American citizens. This could sway the opinions of those citizens who view inflation as a more pressing concern than Trump's past legal issues.
