Potential forthcoming Japanese prime minister may mark history as the nation's first female head of government.
From a record-breaking pool of nine candidates, a tight race is unfolding among the top three contenders, with a likely runoff vote deciding the outcome. The victor will assume leadership of Japan's fourth-largest economy at a time of escalating living costs, exacerbated by a weak yen and high inflation, while dealing with escalating security concerns in the region and tension with neighboring nations, including China.
Among the contenders contending for the reigns of the embattled and scandal-marred Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is Sanae Takaichi, the conservative economics and security minister who could make history as Japan's first female prime minister; Shinjiro Koizumi, an impassioned young surfer with a famous political heritage; and former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, embarking on his fifth and final bid for the top position.
The LDP, a conservative party that has ruled Japan for the majority of its existence since its inception in 1955, currently maintains a majority in the lower house, thereby ensuring that its chosen candidate will secure approval from Japan's parliament, the Diet, upon its convocation in October.
Prior to the scheduled general elections due the following year, the winning contender might choose to call for snap elections at the drop of a hat. Some sources even suggest the possibility of such an election taking place before the US presidential election in November.
Fumio Kishida, the current prime minister, has succumbed to pressure and announced his resignation following a string of political scandals that sparked calls for his departure.
The victor will face the arduous task of revamping the LDP's tarnished public image before the general elections.
Innovation has been a rarity in the LDP's recent history, and it has been grappling with one of Japan's most monumental political scandals in decades. Two of its most influential factions have been accused of failing to disclose their financial transactions properly and, in some instances, misappropriating political funds as kickbacks.
A barrage of damaging incidents surrounding several high-ranking officials, with allegations of election law violations and inappropriate remarks directed at marginalized populations, has not helped matters.
Kishida made an effort to contain the damage, dismissing several cabinet members last year and abolishing his party faction.
With the upcoming US presidential election, the new prime minister must navigate Japan's relationships with America's yet-to-be-determined leader at a time of mounting security challenges in the Asia-Pacific region, including a more aggressive China and belligerent North Korea.
The United States has long regarded Japan as a crucial ally in its strategy for the Asia-Pacific region, and Kishida fortified Japan's military cooperation with its key ally this year.
“Ishiba, Takaichi, and Koizumi seem poised for victory, but it remains uncertain which of these three will emerge victorious,” Yu Uchiyama, a politics professor at Tokyo University, told Reuters. “The outcome will only be revealed at the very end.”
The Contenders
Should Takaichi, 63, emerge victorious, it would be a significant milestone for Japan, as men continue to dominate both politics and business.
However, such a victory would not necessarily herald a new era of progressivism. A seasoned political figure hailing from the LDP's right-wing faction, Takaichi has pledged to prioritize economic development. She has also opposed legislation that would permit married women to retain their maiden names and has extolled Margaret Thatcher, the former conservative British prime minister, as a role model.
Takaichi is a protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and supports Abe's eponymous economic policies and a more aggressive stance on security issues, advocating for a revision of the country's pacifist constitution.
Takaichi's visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which pays homage to 2.4 million Japanese war dead, including convicted war criminals, have triggered protests from South Korea and China, both victims of Japan's aggressive expansion during the first half of the 20th century.
Her economic plans include reducing interest rates, following the Bank of Japan's rate hike in the current year, and advocating for "strategic" fiscal spending to create job opportunities and boost household incomes.
Koizumi, 43, is an American-educated, charismatic scion of a famous political dynasty and has the potential to become Japan's youngest post-war prime minister.
Koizumi has positioned himself as a reformist, in the mold of his father, and has promised to call for snap general elections, vowing to continue Kishida's economic policies.
Critics have raised concerns over Koizumi's lack of experience in domestic and international politics, and his economic plan has been criticized for its apparent lack of detail.
However, Koizumi's popularity among the public, particularly younger demographics and women, has been boosted by measures such as supporting legislation that permits married women to retain their maiden names and championing women's right to ascend to the imperial throne, for which such a practice is currently not permitted in Japan.
Koizumi also made headlines for his decision to take family leave, an unprecedented move in Japan's work-centric culture, despite only a two-week duration.
Ishiba, 67, is a veteran politician who has made his mark in the realm of security issues. He has advocated for Japan to decrease its reliance on nuclear energy and promote the use of renewables instead, and has called for the creation of an Asian version of NATO to counter threats from China and North Korea.
In a society that values conformity, Ishiba has been a rare nonconformist, unafraid to critique and challenge his own party, thereby earning the enmity of his LDP counterparts but endearing himself to grassroots supporters and the public at large.
A member of the LDP's more progressive wing, Ishiba has built a reputation as a proponent of progressive values.
The contest for Japan's leadership is attracting global interest, as the winner will navigate diplomatic relations with Asia, specifically addressing the tense situation with China.
Should Sanae Takaichi become prime minister, she would represent a significant shift in Japan's political landscape, as she draws inspiration from conservative figures like Margaret Thatcher and supports her predecessor's economic policies.
