- Political expert: CDU is encountering a debate over firewalls
Thuringia's Political Impasse
The election in Thuringia on Sunday ended in a deadlock. Initially, a politically viable majority seemed attainable through a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD. However, this became impractical later in the evening. Consequently, a coalition without the participation of either the AfD or the Left is no longer an option for Minister President Bodo Ramelow. As per political scientist Oliver Lembcke from Ruhr University Bochum, the CDU's incompatibility resolution prohibits a coalition with either party.
Thuringia's CDU leader Mario Voigt had apparently placed his bets on a CDU-led coalition with the new alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). However, this plan just missed the mark. Voigt's CDU finished second behind the AfD in the election. Lembcke noted that Ramelow has long been advocating for the CDU to move towards the left. The alternatives, according to Lembcke, would be an ungovernable state or a minority government supported by the Left.
If Voigt opts for a minority government, Lembcke believes, he would further enhance his reliance on the Left and make himself susceptible to blackmail in decision-making.
Shift in Party Structure, according to Lembcke
Lembcke, who spent many years at Friedrich Schiller University in Jena, views the elections in Saxony and Thuringia as a shift in Germany's party structure. "The East German party system - in Thuringia and Saxony - is fundamentally different from that in the West," said Lembcke. These elections have only served to exacerbate existing differences. "This election was a vote of anger against a West German-dominated party landscape and against the traffic light coalition," said Lembcke. However, these elections have also paved the way for a new three-party system, according to Lembcke, consisting of AfD, CDU, and BSW. "Something is solidifying," he said. The BSW has assumed the role previously held by the Left.
Despite the election result on Sunday leading to a political impasse, Thuringia's Minister President Bodo Ramelow must now consider an ungovernable state or a minority government supported by the Left due to the CDU's incompatibility resolution. On the other hand, if CDU leader Mario Voigt decides on a minority government, it could increase his dependence on the Left and make him vulnerable to manipulation during decision-making processes.
