Permafrost thawing may not trigger large-scale changes in the climate system, a recent study suggests.
"The image we see here doesn't truly represent the current situation," clarified the AWI. They emphasized that the permafrost thaw is not an impending doom, but rather a gradual process triggered by many local and regional factors. These factors work together and become harder to reverse.
Recent research published in "Nature Climate Change" suggests that permafrost thaw is, for the most part, driven by global warming. The thaw increases with the temperature rise of around five to six degrees Celsius, potentially affecting more areas in the process.
Nitzbon, a researcher from the AWI, explained there's no substantial evidence that permafrost thaw could act as a sudden, massive tipping point. The gradual release of greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane due to the thaw is a real risk, but the idea of it being a self-sustaining global process isn't supported by facts.
There's been much debate in the scientific community about whether Arctic permafrost thaw could be a tipping point in the global climate. This research aims to offer more clarity on this issue. Based on an evaluation of the thaw processes and a data analysis, it should help predict the consequences.
Permanently frozen soils, often found in the northern hemisphere, cover one-fourth of Earth's surface. They store immense amounts of organic carbon in the form of decaying plant remains. When permafrost thaws due to climate change, microorganisms become active, triggering the decomposition of this material, leading to the release of massive quantities of CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.
Permafrost thaw is seen as a potential tipping point in the context of climate change. A tipping element is a natural system that, upon surpassing a certain threshold, can cause drastic change to its stable state and pose a significant danger to life on Earth and potentially contribute to further accelerating climate change. The thawing of polar ice caps is also thought of as a tipping point.
According to their findings, Nitzbon and his team underline the importance of increased climate protection. The idea of the permafrost acting as a gentler, climate change threshold adversely affected by human actions is a misconception. The quicker we reach carbon neutrality, the more permafrost areas will remain as habitats and carbon stores.
