People's voting patterns in Bavaria's regions: a look at strongholds and setbacks.

Voting Processes - People's voting patterns in Bavaria's regions: a look at strongholds and setbacks.

Taking a peek at the Bavarian map for the European elections, you'll notice a lot of familiar faces - all districts and free cities are colored black. But as you delve deeper into the results, you'll find that there are significant differences between regions, including strongholds, weak points, and notable declines. So, let's break it down by the numbers.

CSU:In contrast to the state election and previous European election, all districts have turned black once more. Markus Söder's party has a stronghold in Rhön-Grabfeld, Lower Franconia, with a whopping 48.9% of the votes. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Munich remains the weakest spot for the CSU, with only 27.1% of the votes. Although it still secures the top spot in the city, it's a significant drop from the previous election. In terms of regions, Lower Bavaria is the strongest with 45.2% and the weakest in Upper Bavaria and Middle Franconia. Interestingly, there's been a noticeable decline in CSU votes in Lower Bavaria, amounting to a loss of more than 8.2 percentage points compared to the last European election, while gains were seen for the AfD and the Free Voters.

Greens:Five years ago, the Greens were able to secure the highest number of votes in cities like Munich, Würzburg, and Erlangen. Today, however, they can only muster a second-place finish in these areas. They perform exceptionally well in Munich with 23.7%, but rather poorly in Freyung-Grafenau with 4.2%. Personal note: This is quite a large dip from their previous highs. The Greens have experienced their greatest loss in Lindau, where they've shed 10.8 percentage points since the last European election – no gains were considered. The strongest stronghold for the Greens lies in Upper Bavaria with 15.6% and the weakest point is in Lower Bavaria with a paltry 6.3%. Statewide, the average sits at 11.8%.

AfD:The AfD performs best in rural areas and usually holds the second spot in most places. They've managed to secure this position for a second place statewide with 12.6% of the votes. The best result was in the Regen district, with 20.2% support, while the worst was in Munich's city center with a mere 6.7%. The party has the ability to gain everywhere at the district level, with the strongest gains seen in Freyung-Grafenau (an increase of 8.3 percentage points) and weakest in Munich (a minor 0.7 increase). Strongest districts for the AfD are Lower Bavaria with 16.7% and the Upper Palatinate with 15.2%, as they're in the top two spots in both regions.

SPD:The SPD achieves its best result in Fürth with 14.1% of the votes and its worst in Straubing-Bogen at 4.5%. For the most part, SPD escapes the severe declines experienced by the Greens. The biggest loss was in Kronach with 3.9 percentage points, while the strongest gain was in Landshut City, where they managed to secure 1.4 more points. This party can even manage to nab the second spot in some areas, such as Schwabach and Coburg.

The Hubert Aiwanger party:This party experiences its peak results in Lower Bavaria with 10.1% and the Upper Palatinate with 9.3%. However, despite its strongholds, the party continues to trail behind the AfD in both regions, as it's in second place. This is also the case in its top stronghold of Cham, where the FW receives 14.3%. The weakest point for this party is Nuremberg city with 2.2%. But even in Cham, the FW manages to secure second place, and they see their greatest gains in Garmisch-Partenkirchen. Despite this, they also record their largest dip in the Oberallgau, where they lost 3.2 percentage points.

FDP:The FDP reaches its highest result in Starnberg with 7.6% and their poorest in Cham with 1.8%. Even in Starnberg, this only earns them a fifth-place spot. Keep in mind, these points don't even place them in the top three in any district.

Other parties:These parties, without a 5% hurdle, hold a more significant role in European elections. Overall, they accumulate 14.8% of the votes, with their highest result in Wuerzburg City (20.6%) and the largest gain in that city as well. In Neustadt an der Waldnaab, their totals were still high at 10%.

Voter turnout:The districts with the highest voter turnout include Starnberg and Erlangen City, both clocking in at 73.8%, followed by Wuerzburg District with 73.6% and 73.3%, respectively. Conversely, the lowest voter turnout was in Schweinfurt City with 52.1%; Straubing City and Hof follow with 53.5% and 55.2%, respectively.

Usually, the number of voters is smaller in urban areas compared to the surrounding regions. However, Erlangen is an exception to this rule. One plausible explanation could be the local referendum on the city-district railway, which was held on the same day and might have increased voter participation.

In terms of regional performance, Unterfranken tops the list with a 67.6% voter turnout. All other districts and cities fall below Bavaria's average of 65.5%. Oberbayern has a turnout of 67.2%, followed by Mittelfranken at 65.7%. Oberfranken is slightly below the average with 65.4%. The Oberpfalz and Swabia also fall shy of the average with 65.0% and 63.6%, respectively. The lowest voter turnout was witnessed in Lower Bavaria at 60.6%.

Regarding the influence of floods on election results, no clear correlation can be established. There was no noticeable connection between the changes in election results and severely affected areas. While there is some degree of general fluctuation, no particular pattern can be discerned in relation to the flood-affected areas.

Read also:

1. In the European elections, all districts and free cities in Bavaria are colored black, indicating a stronghold for a party, but there are significant differences between regions.
2. Contrary to the state election and previous European election, all districts in Bavaria have turned black for the CSU in this European election.
3. Rhön-Grabfeld, located in Lower Franconia, is a stronghold for the CSU with a 48.9% vote share, while Munich remains its weakest spot with only 27.1%.
4. Lower Bavaria is the strongest region for the CSU with a vote share of 45.2%, while the party experiences a notable decline in Lower Bavaria, losing more than 8.2 percentage points compared to the last European election.
5. In the European elections, Munich, Würzburg, and Erlangen were strongholds for the Greens, but they could only secure a second-place finish in these areas compared to five years ago.
6. Green party performances vary greatly, with a high of 23.7% in Munich and a low of 4.2% in Freyung-Grafenau, a change from their previous highs.
7. The AfD performs best in rural areas and holds the second spot in most places, securing a second-place statewide with 12.6% of the votes.
8. The Free Voters, led by Hubert Aiwanger, perform best in Lower Bavaria and the Upper Palatinate, but trail behind the AfD in both regions.
9. In the European elections, the FDP had its highest result in Starnberg with 7.6% and its poorest in Cham with 1.8%, not even placing in the top three in any district.
10. The state of Bavaria witnessed twelve district referendums related to European Union membership, with all districts voting in favor of EU membership.
11. In contrast to the Lower Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria does not feature any strongholds or notable setbacks for parties in the European Parliament elections. The stronghold concept generally applies to regional state elections, with parties achieving concentrated power in particular constituencies, such as Freyung-Grafenau for the Freyung-Grafenau party, and Fürth for the SPD.

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